Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 25 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.00

R2: 133.56

R1: 133.10

Current Spot: 132.87

S1: 132.58

S2: 132.27

S1: 131.90

Technical Summary:

As the correction from 134.95 continues to put pressure on the downside, the odds is shifting towards the rally from 129.60 being an expanded leading diagonal (see the chart below). At this point the odds for the two possible scenarios is fifty-fifty, but for the 1-2/1-2 scenario to be considered we have to find a bottom now for a series of powerful wave three's pushing higher towards 137.45. However, a break below 132.70 will shift the odds towards the expanding leading diagonal as wave i and we are currently in wave ii which should make it down to 132.12 and maybe even 131.63 before wave iii takes over for a rally higher towards at least 137.45.

 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6507

R2: 1.6451

R1: 1.6389

Current Spot: 1.6372

S1: 1.6311

S2: 1.6255

S3: 1.6227

Technical Summary:

What should have been the final decline to a new low near 1.6011 turned out to be a fifth failure, with a low at 1.6089 and we have now begun a new major rally. The first major target for this rally is at 1.7475. Of cause we will meet resistance as we move higher towards 1.7475 the first coming in at 1.6389 followed by resistance at 1.6542 (38.2% of wave C); 1.6682 (50% of wave C) and 1.6821 (61.8% of wave C). As long as resistance at 1.6380 protects the upside we could see a decline towards 1.6230 before the next move higher, but once resistance at 1.6380 breaks we should see an acceleration higher. At this point only a break below 1.6089 will invalidate the bullish outlook.