Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 132.14
R2: 131.48
R1: 131.16
Current Spot: 131.07
S1: 130.86
S2: 130.64
S3: 130.26
Technical Summary:
Wave i of the new impulsive rally ended at 132.14 and has been followed by an zig-zag wave ii correction. This wave ii correction is still ongoing as long as minor resistance at 131.16 and more important resistance at 131.48 protects the upside. As long as these resistance Levels protect the upside I will be looking for one last decline closer to my target at 130.64. That said we have to remember, that this is a wave ii correction and second waves are allowed to correct all of the first wave, but it can never break below the starting point of the first wave, which in this case is at 129.30. However, once we have seen a test of support at 130.64 or a break above 131.48 we are looking for a new powerful rally higher towards at least 133.48 and more likely 135.24.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6806
R2: 1.6744
R1: 1.6654
Current Spot: 1.6586
S1: 1.6582
S2: 1.6485
S3: 1.6409
Technical Summary:
This wave ii correction has proven to be a harder nut to crack than expected. Once again we have taken out what could have been the final low and once again I have had to adjust my short term count. Once again we could be at the low for this wave ii correction, which now has corrected 70.7% of wave i. However, second waves are allowed to correct all of wave i, but can never break below the starting point of wave i, which in this case is at 1.6325. Again we are seeing a possible hidden divergence, but it could also be a warning that we still have more downside to come. To end this wave ii correction we need a break above resistance at 1.6651 and more importantly a break above 1.6806. A break above the later will confirm that wave ii has finally come to and end and wave iii higher towards at least 1.7968 is developing.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeletea few days ago I asked you if EURCAD could fall towards 1.37, you answered: no, probably only until 1.39. But it was not so!
I think even without the knowledge of EW the levels can be assessed properly. I see it to 1.3722-1.3703.
Also your EW count on EURNZD is different every day. The first assessment up was wrong for about 270 pips up and now down also. I expect 1.6438, 1.6393 and probably next week 1.6365.
Apparently EW count is very flexible and not so reliable, but your analysis are informative and worth reading.
best regards
HI EWS
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for the eur/jpy and as said wave 2 has started and NOw we should be looking for a break above 132.15 and 132.42 and my question is that I have drawn nzd/usd chart and with this outlook I am bit confused that previous trendline giving support to kiwi around 0.7700 level and it is a channel and it possible could be a wedge which is point to a corerction towards 0.6400 in X wave and then final Y wave
here is the update I have for you to take a look i dont use fibos or counts because I am not been able to login to my tradig account
please have a look at it in your free time and see is that could be a possiblity with a break below 0.7700 and then powerful rally or one another test of 0.8100 as you said in your previous count for wave 2
regards
here is the link
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/812/mqzk.png/
Hi Paulina,
ReplyDeleteI think you got the keyword, which is "probably". Whether you use Elliott wave or any other form of technical analysis all we try to do is getting the probability on your side as much as possible.
Yes you can assess target wihtout useing EW, but I think that the EWP is outstanding as it offers you a few rules that tells you when you count is incorrect.
I do not agree with you, when you say I have a different count on EUR/NZD every day. The count has been the same since late August. However I will agree, that my track recorde trying to figure out the low of this decline has been poor and I'm not prude of it - believe me.
However, from time to time one just get started on a wrong count and it sometimes is more difficulte to get back on the rigth track and this is one of those times for me.
That said I think it's wrong to juge me on that account alone, but it's of cause you choosing.
Kind regards
EWS
No, I certainly do not judge you, it was only my opinion in this one case, otherwise your EURJPY was absolutely great, great, great!!!
ReplyDeletePerhaps we should look for confirmations rather than luk for early bottom and we might see the bottom today as i feel stage is all set for weekly trendline to hold from here and forms a channel which pointing at 1.8072
ReplyDeleteRegards
Hi EWS:
ReplyDeleteThe three support levels were broken today, because today is NFP (Non Farm Payroll) in USA, the first friday of each month.
OMHO---EURNZD- this is the Fourth Test of the S/R line 1.6114-1.6316. Stopping V suggests Still Supply in Market- rarely do 4 tests hold...
ReplyDelete4.618 of 1 is 1.5862 and also the Golden ratio for the Daily wave 1.5065- 1.7105.
Also look at the internal structure-- you can't ask for a more perfect wave.
IMHO the the move from 1.6316 to 1.7272 had little of no fibo correction or .38% and is most likely a large B wave- and we are seeing the Downside C wave Now. (look at at EURAUD or GBPNZD Chart and you will see)
Just my 2 pips...
Hi Jeff,
DeleteThank you very much for you chart.
I do think you Count is very valid and could well prove to be the correct Count. That would also explaine why it has been so difficulte pinpoint a bottom for the decline from 1.7274.
Kind regards
EWS
http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/734042/eurnzdfxf-d1-forex-com
ReplyDelete