Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 5 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 132.59

R2: 132.28

R1: 131.95

Current Spot: 131.50

S1: 131.38

S2: 131.02

S3: 130.64

Technical Summary:

We have seen the expected short term rally higher towards the first target at 131.95. We have not yet hit 131.95, but I still think, that there will be one more rally higher towards 131.95 before this wave i is over and wave ii takes over in a correction of wave i towards 130.95 and maybe even 130.64 before we can expect the next impulsive rally higher in wave iii towards at least 133.09. However for now we should focus on pinpointing the top of wave i, which likely will be at 131.95, but with a possibility of extending higher towards 132.28 and even 132.59 before the wave ii correction takes over.

 EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6847

R2: 1.6799

R1: 1.6750

Current Spot: 1.6697

S1: 1.6674

S2: 1.6625

S3: 1.6572

Technical Summary:

As minor, but important, resistance at 1.6933 protected the upside for a break below support at 1.6801 I have had to change my short term count slightly (see the 15 minute chart below). With the decline to 1.6625 (deeper than expected) we have seen a 61.8% correction of wave i and wave c of the expanded flat correction has become 3 times longer than wave a. Short term we will need a break above 1.6750 as the first indication, that wave ii could be over, but it will take a break above 1.6933 to confirm that wave ii is indeed over and wave iii is developing for a rally higher towards at least 1.8037 and possibly higher. However, as long as minor resistance at 1.6750 protects the upside we could see a slightly deeper correction in wave ii to 1.6581, but we are very close to a bottom now.