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Monday, February 27, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/CAD; AUD/USD; NZD/USD; DJI and Shanghai Comp.

EUR/USD - Has now meet and slightly exceeded resistance at 134.50. We should see this resistance hold for a break below 133.60 and more importantly 131.80 otherwise a break above 135.00 will open for a continuation higher towards 136.50.
USD/CAD - Looking at the commodity currencies it's interesting to see, that they all are weaker against the USD, which could be a short term abbreviation or it could be a warning, that the USD-weakness we are seeing against EUR is overdone.
I'm still looking for a test of the important resistance near 100.80 in USD/CAD and a break above here will open up for a continuation higher towards 104.25 and likely also 105.25.
AUD/USD - Here the short term picture is dominated by the minor S/H/S top, which is adding pressure on AUD for a decline towards 103.85 and a break below here will confirm continuation towards 98.60 and probably also 96.65.
Only a break above 108.15 will call for a new push towards strong resistance at 110.80
NZD/USD - Also shows a possible topping pattern, which would be triggered upon a break below 82.60 for a decline towards resistance at 80.55 and possibly even 79.50.
Only a break above 84.00 will invalidate the top and call for a continuation higher to near 85.71.
VIX Index - Could be building an Inverted S/H/S bottom or the abbreviation of it call a three bottom formation if we break just below 16.10, but we should soon see the volatility pick up, which means lower equity prices. If we hold above 16.10 and break above the neckline resistance near 21.00 we should see a move higher towards the 28.30 area.
Dow Jones Industrial - Is still in its uptrend, of which the last part began at 11,735 on December 19. As long as support at 12,833 isn't broken we must accept a push to new highs above 13,013, but I still don't much more room towards the upside. I do think, that both time and price is near the limit and a breakdown is imminent.
A break below 12,833 will call for a decline towards 12,750 and likely also 12,543.
Shanghai Composite - The break above the mid-line resistance at 2,446 does open for a move higher towards strong resistance near 2,540, but here too I think we are close to a top, but we need a break below 2,396 to add confidence in a top being in place and a new decline towards the 2,196 area.

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