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Thursday, February 23, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD; KRE; VIX; DJI and the Shanghai Comp.

EUR/USD - Is stuck in a narrow range between 131.80 and 133.00. I still expect support at 131.80 to be the more vulnerable at this point, but the risk of a break above 133.00 is clear and should cause a move closer to the next strong resistance near 134.50.
A break below 131.80 will open up the downside for a decline towards support at 129.73.
GBP/USD - Collapsed yesterday. As I said in my post yesterday, that this cross looked very toppish. Currently the 38.2% support of the rise from 152.33 to 159.28 protects the downside, but it should just be a matter of time before this support at 156.40 gives away and a decline towards 155 and more likely 152.33 is seen.
USD/JPY - Is struggling a bit with resistance at 80.26, but it should just be a matter of time before we break above this resistance for a move closer to the Inverted S/H/S target near 82.60.
AUD/USD - Has activated a S/H/S top, which should produce a decline towards the next strong support near 103.85. The former neckline support at 106.95 should now act as resistance.
Regional Bank Index - Has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, which could be a warning for the broader indices, that they are at or very near the top and close to start the next serious decline.
Regional banks have clearly lead the rally since early October rallying more than 40%, while the DJI only have rallied about 25%.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - Is still hoovering near resistance at 13,000. Yes we have seen a minor break, but we have a massive negative divergence on the MACD-Indicator. The Dow Transportation is nowhere near confirming this high (See my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/dow-non-confirmation-between-dji-vs-djt.html) and now we are seeing the Regional Banks Index (KRE) breaking down too. I still think it's just a matter of time before important support at 12,750 is broken. If you have being holding long positions in the DJI I think it would be prudent to at least protecting yourself with a stop just below 12,750.
Shanghai Composite - Is now very closer to strong resistance and we could see a top any time now. However we need a break below 2,345 before the top can be confirmed.

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