USD/CAD - Has broken slightly below the former 99.23 low, but be aware of the possibility of a failure break. To confirm the failure break we need resistance at 99.47 and more importantly resistance at 99.85 broken. A break above 99.85 will call for at least a move towards 100.80, but longer term I'm looking the top at 106.57 to be recaptured for a continuation towards the 117 - 118 area. A move like that should make CAD one of the ideal selling-candidates ag. TRY.Original Post below
EUR/USD - We have tested the upper part of my target-area for wave 2, but are we done yet? We absolutely could be, but I can make a case for EUR/USD to rally a bit further towards 132.85 from where the next decline down through 131.35 should be the first indication that wave 3 down have begun and call for a decline below 129.73.
GBP/USD - Also looks like it could have finished red wave ii for the next powerful decline. However as long as support at 157.95 hasn't given away to the downside we must accept the possibility of one last new high near 158.85, but I do favor the downside resolution right away as my preferred count.
TRY/JPY - We have now clearly broken above the Double Bottom resistance-line at 44.70, which does call for a continuation towards 48.90. I warned of the possible imminent break above the resistance-line in my post from February 16 (see my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_16.html).I would not be surprised to see the former resistance-line now support back-tested, but it's not a necessity. If however we see the back-test it's a nice opportunity to grab some TRY ag. JPY.
The VIX Index - Has broken below the Bollinger Band mid-line after having closed outside the upper Bollinger band, which normally calls for a return to the lower Bollinger band, but be aware that we are in some kind of bottom-building process, which can produce unexpected volatile move, both up and down. Longer term I'm looking for a break above 23.65 for a continuation towards 28.30
Dow Jones Industrial - We have clearly entered my target-area for wave 5 of C, but do we need one last move deeper into the target-area? As long as support at 12,719 isn't broken to the downside it's a possibility, but and break below 12,719 will be the first signal, that wave 5 is done and call for a continuation down towards 12,880 and a break below here we be the next good indication.
Shanghai Composite - The correction from 2,132 seem to be very close to its end, but we need a break below 2,340 to confirm the top and the beginning of a new decline below 2,132 longer term.
Dr. Copper - Seem to agree with the possible topping scenarios above. The possible Shooting Star candle we saw a couple of weeks ago was confirmed last week and we should soon see a break below support at 371 to confirm the next leg lower towards 325 and below.
Crude Oil - Is again testing the resistance-area between 103.44 - 104.75, but we also have the strong resistance-line from the mid-2008 top to the mid-2011 top just above at 106.80. If however this resistance is broken too. The upside springs wide open for a continuation higher towards 115 and the Inverted S/H/S target near 132.00.
The VIX Index - Has broken below the Bollinger Band mid-line after having closed outside the upper Bollinger band, which normally calls for a return to the lower Bollinger band, but be aware that we are in some kind of bottom-building process, which can produce unexpected volatile move, both up and down. Longer term I'm looking for a break above 23.65 for a continuation towards 28.30
Dow Jones Industrial - We have clearly entered my target-area for wave 5 of C, but do we need one last move deeper into the target-area? As long as support at 12,719 isn't broken to the downside it's a possibility, but and break below 12,719 will be the first signal, that wave 5 is done and call for a continuation down towards 12,880 and a break below here we be the next good indication.
Shanghai Composite - The correction from 2,132 seem to be very close to its end, but we need a break below 2,340 to confirm the top and the beginning of a new decline below 2,132 longer term.
Dr. Copper - Seem to agree with the possible topping scenarios above. The possible Shooting Star candle we saw a couple of weeks ago was confirmed last week and we should soon see a break below support at 371 to confirm the next leg lower towards 325 and below.
Crude Oil - Is again testing the resistance-area between 103.44 - 104.75, but we also have the strong resistance-line from the mid-2008 top to the mid-2011 top just above at 106.80. If however this resistance is broken too. The upside springs wide open for a continuation higher towards 115 and the Inverted S/H/S target near 132.00.
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