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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on USD-Index; EUR/TRY; TRY/JPY and EUR/JPY

Just a short update for now. I might update some more later in the day...
USD Index - Held resistance at 79.60 without any trouble and broke below support at 78.60 yesterday, which calls for a continuation down towards strong support near 77.

That does fit my view, that the DJI and S&P 500 needs more time in its uptrend (see my post from yesterday here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_07.html

EUR/TRY - Is headed for its double top target near 221.25. We saw the nice little bear flag break in late January (see my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurtry.html and here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/fomc-annouced-yesterday-that-interest.html)

It looks like a little new bear flag might be building and a break below support at 229.40 will call for the next decline towards the 221.25 target.

Resistance is at 232,45.

TRY/JPY has also done very nicely and is headed for the double bottom neckline at 44.55 (see my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-analysis-on-tryjpy.html) a clear break above here would call for a continuation towards 48.55, but longer term we should be looking at much higher levels.

It might be a good thing to take some profits on and long TRY short JPY positions near 44.55, but be ready to re-enter near 42.60 or if we break above 44.55.
EUR/JPY - The possible bottom I talked aboubt in post of January 27 (see here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012_01_01_archive.html) seems to gather strength, what we need now is a break above the Inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder bottoms neckline at 102.50, which will open up for a continuation towards 108 (see the daily chart below).

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