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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/JPY; The VIX-Index; DJI and Shanghai Comp.

USD Index & EUR/USD - Has both broken their respective resistance and support line, but we still need a break above 97.52 in the USD-Index and a break below 130.25 in EUR/USD to confirm a turnaround.
In EUR/USD be aware of support near 131.10, if this holds a turns us up through 132.85 again we will see a move closer to 134.00 before down. However a clear break below 131.10 will call for a serious test of important support at 130.25.
GBP/USD - The MACD Indicator has clear crossed to the downside calling for a decline towards the 155.00 - 155.80 area.
USD/JPY - Is close to important resistance at 78.35 and a break here we be bullish, but we also need a break above resistance at 79.55 to be able to call for an long term bottom at 75.57.
A break above 79.55 will call for a continuation towards the 82.50 - 82.60 area at least.
VIX Index - Back tested the former wedge resistance line on acting as support and closed almost exactly at the Bollinger mid-band line. I expect the next move to be to the upside again for a move closer to the upper Bollinger band.
Dow Jones Industrial - Is hoovering at triple resistance near 12.876. The divergence on the MACD-Indicator is constantly getting bigger and the VIX is pointing towards a renewed pressure to the downside, but as I said yesterday, as long as support at 12,570 and more importantly 12,529 isn't broken to the downside we are not yet out of the woods.
Shanghai Composite - Found strong resistance near 2,370 as expected and a break below the minor support line at 2,325 would be the trigger for the next move lower towards 2,196 and below.

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