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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; AUD/TRY; CAD/TRY and NZD/TRY

EUR/USD - Needed on more new high to near the 133.00 area, but we are now at a make it or break it point. A break below 131.80 will confirm, that a top is in place for a decline towards 131.00 and 129.50, where strong neckline support is found. This support needs to break to see us back down to 126.45.
GBP/USD - Also needed one more move higher. This cross is looking way more toppish, than EUR/USD, but we need a break below 158.05 to confirm the top for a decline towards strong support near 156.40.
AUD/TRY - Is currently at support, but if this support breaks we could be looking at a much deeper decline towards the 164.50 - 165.00 area.
I like to trade the commodity currencies from the short side ag. TRY, as it will offer me a premium to the selling rate in the forward market. That means I both have the potential for a gain on the rate and on the interest differential between the two currencies.
CAD/TRY - Has broken below it's support, but have more support nearby at 173.10, but a break below here should leave the downside open for a move closer to 157.50.
NZD/TRY - Has broken the second rising support and is about to break below support at 145.35. A break below this support should be used to enter short NZD and long TRY positions as stops can be placed comfortably near to make it a low risk/high reward trade.
A break below 145.35 should call for a decline to the possible Double top neckline at 137.60, while stops can be placed just above 148.35 making it a 1/2.5 risk-reward trade and it could easily be a much better trade if the neckline support breaks too.

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