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Friday, February 17, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; EUR/TRY and DJI

USD Index - The price action in the USD-Index was absolutely not in favor of the USD-Bulls yesterday, but as longs as support in the 78.75 - 79.00 protects the downside I will be looking for a new leg higher above 80.20 for a continuation higher towards the neckline resistance near 81.50.
A break below 78.75 will be bearish for the USD and call for a new test of support near 78.00 and possibly lower.
EUR/USD - As I just said above the price action for the USD-Bulls wasn't the best yesterday. The most USD-bullish count I can come up with is shown in the chart above. Since the top at 133.21 we have seen a Leading Diagonal as wave 1 and are now in wave 2, which should not break above resistance at 132.40, which could be the left shoulder of a possible S/H/S top.
Any break above 132.40 will leave the USD vulnerable for a continuation higher in EUR/USD towards 133.50 and maybe even 134.50, but this is not my preferred view at this point.
USD/JPY - Clearly broke above the neckline resistance at 78.70 yesterday calling for a continuation higher towards the S/H/S target at 82.70. On the way to the S/H/S target strong resistance will be found at 80.25, which could push us back towards the former neckline resistance, which now has turned into support.
EUR/TRY - Has clearly broken down from the second nice little bear-flag and should be headed towards 224.50 and later on the Double top target near 221.25.
Just a reminder. Keep an eye on TRY/JPY as the current weakness in the JPY could push us directly above the Double bottom neckline resistance at 44.65 and a close above here would call for a continuation higher towards the target near 49.00.
Dow Jones Industrial - Of the two possible counts i described yesterday the wave 4 count is clearly the correct one, which means we are now in wave 5 up to just above 1,922. I would expect wave 5 top in the 12,946 - 13,000 area. That doesn't not mean I am advocating for a long position in DJI. To the contrary we are getting very close to an important top and a serious decline. However we need a break below 12,753 to confirm the top for a decline towards strong support in the 12,529 - 12,580 area.

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