Elliott wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; The Vix-Index; DJI; Silver; Gold and Crude oil

USD Index & EUR/USD - We haven't quiet broken resistance in the 134.85 - 135.00 area, but at this point I feel pretty confident we will. The target after the break above 135.00 will be near 136.30, where we do find the next strong resistance area.

For the USD-index that means a continuation down towards the low 77 area.

VIX Index & Dow Jones Industrial - Moved a little higher again. Most technical indicators now flashes red which is a warning and we should be very prudent up here. That said I would not be overly surprised to see a quick rally towards 13,073 or slightly above and an equally quick reversal to support near 12,990. A break below support near 12,990 will be the first indication, that a top might be in place. But we will need a break below 12,753 and more importantly 12,553 to confirm the top.

Gold - Has activated an inverted S/H/S bottom, which does call for a rally higher towards 2,020 - 2,060 area. That said there is a risk, that resistance at 1,802.60 will protect the upside for now and turn us down to make a second right shoulder, but that just speculation from my side at this point. If this scenario is to have any validation we need a clear break below the support at 1,703.60.

Silver - It has been some time since I last reviewed silver. The count shown above is my favored count at this point. The decline from 49.51 is clearly a three wave affair as is the rally from 26.04 and I expect we should reach 42.18 where wave c will be 1.618*wave a. From 49.18 we should see the next leg lower towards the 19 - 21 support area.

Crude oil - Has meet short term resistance near 110.00, but I will expect support in the 103.45 - 105.30 to hold for the next rally higher towards the 2011 top at 114.83. Longer term the S/H/S target near 131.60 should attract prices.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/CAD; AUD/USD; NZD/USD; VIX-Index and DJI

EUR/USD - We are locked at important resistance at 135.00, but if we break above here the upside will be open for a continuation higher towards 136.50 and maybe even 138.70.
The price action the last couple of days has not been very favorable to my view of a possible top building here. As long as resistance at 135.00 holds firm I will look very closely for a break below 133.60, which should offer a test of important support at 131.80, but we need a break below here to turn things around since the test of 134.85 has in no way been constructive in regards to a possible top being formed.

USD/CAD - Yesterday it seemed like important resistance at 100.60 was going to come under fire and today that seems like a very remote possibility. The powerful rejection near 100.60 has forced me to change my count, which now says that the 100.49 only marked the top of wave 4 and we are now in wave 5 down. We have a cluster of supports in the 97.05 - 97.45 area, which should mark the possible bottom of wave 5.

AUD/USD - The possible S/H/S top was blown away yesterday too, and we are now testing important resistance at 107.90. A break above 107.90 will open up for a continuation higher towards 110.80 again. We could even seen a slight overshoot here, but resistance at or near 110.80 is very strong.

If however resistance here at 107.90 holds for a break below support at 105.90 we should see a continuation deeper towards 103.80.

NZD/USD - The possible Diamond top formation a described yesterday was invalidated upon the break above 84.00 and we should now see a continuation higher towards 85.71 soon. A break above 84.25 confirms the 85.71 target.

Only an unexpected break back below 82.60 will ease the upside pressure and turn us down towards 80.55 and possibly even 79.50.

VIX Index - Failed to break above the mid-band yesterday, which keeps a slight pressure towards the downside, but we could see a reversal at any time and a break above 19.25 should turn focus towards the neckline near 21.30. A break above 21.30 will spark the volatility much higher towards 28.30.

Dow Jones Industrial - The best fit seems to be that an ending diagonal is forming. We should be pretty close to the top, but as long as the support-line from December last year isn't broken we could see new higher highs.

A break below the support-line at 12,900 will ease the upside pressure and call for a decline towards important support at 12,743 and possibly even 12,543.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/CAD; AUD/USD; NZD/USD; DJI and Shanghai Comp.

EUR/USD - Has now meet and slightly exceeded resistance at 134.50. We should see this resistance hold for a break below 133.60 and more importantly 131.80 otherwise a break above 135.00 will open for a continuation higher towards 136.50.

USD/CAD - Looking at the commodity currencies it's interesting to see, that they all are weaker against the USD, which could be a short term abbreviation or it could be a warning, that the USD-weakness we are seeing against EUR is overdone.

I'm still looking for a test of the important resistance near 100.80 in USD/CAD and a break above here will open up for a continuation higher towards 104.25 and likely also 105.25.

AUD/USD - Here the short term picture is dominated by the minor S/H/S top, which is adding pressure on AUD for a decline towards 103.85 and a break below here will confirm continuation towards 98.60 and probably also 96.65.

Only a break above 108.15 will call for a new push towards strong resistance at 110.80

NZD/USD - Also shows a possible topping pattern, which would be triggered upon a break below 82.60 for a decline towards resistance at 80.55 and possibly even 79.50.

Only a break above 84.00 will invalidate the top and call for a continuation higher to near 85.71.

VIX Index - Could be building an Inverted S/H/S bottom or the abbreviation of it call a three bottom formation if we break just below 16.10, but we should soon see the volatility pick up, which means lower equity prices. If we hold above 16.10 and break above the neckline resistance near 21.00 we should see a move higher towards the 28.30 area.

Dow Jones Industrial - Is still in its uptrend, of which the last part began at 11,735 on December 19. As long as support at 12,833 isn't broken we must accept a push to new highs above 13,013, but I still don't much more room towards the upside. I do think, that both time and price is near the limit and a breakdown is imminent.

A break below 12,833 will call for a decline towards 12,750 and likely also 12,543.

Shanghai Composite - The break above the mid-line resistance at 2,446 does open for a move higher towards strong resistance near 2,540, but here too I think we are close to a top, but we need a break below 2,396 to add confidence in a top being in place and a new decline towards the 2,196 area.

EUR/JPY Has meet its S/H/S Target

EUR/JPY - Today meet its S/H/S target at 108 (See my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_08.html).
Even though the target is meet I do see the possibility for a move higher into the 110 - 113 area. The next serious resistance is just below 112.00.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; The VIX-Index; DJI; Gold and Crude oil

EUR/USD - The break above resistance at 133.00 calls for a continuation towards 134.50 as long as support at 133.00 and more importantly 132.70 protects the downside. Any break below 132.70 will indicate, that a top is in place for a decline towards 129.75 area.

VIX Index - Is now back at the lower Bollinger support- band, as the close above the upper Bollinger resistance-band on February 15 indicated if also the mid-band was broken as it was just two days after.

The big question now is whether support at 16.10 will protect the downside or we will reach for the next support at 14.60? I do prefer support at 16.10 to stay untouched, but we will need a break above 18.95 to confirm that.

Dow Jones Industrial - Continues to hoover just around the 13,000 key level. I do think time is finally running out and a big down-move will be seen soon, but to confirm that view we need a break below important short term support at 12,750.

Gold - Broke above resistance at 1,762 yesterday triggering a Inverted S/H/S bottom. We will find a new resistance just above at 1,809, which could turn us down again to form a second right shoulder, but for now we must accept, that the break above 1,762 has activated the S/H/S bottom for a possible move higher towards the 2,030 - 2,100 area.

Crude oil - Continues to push ahead for the next resistance at 114.85, but the potential for the Inverted S/H/S bottom is at 131.60.

The form neckline resistance at 103.45 on acts as support.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD; KRE; VIX; DJI and the Shanghai Comp.

EUR/USD - Is stuck in a narrow range between 131.80 and 133.00. I still expect support at 131.80 to be the more vulnerable at this point, but the risk of a break above 133.00 is clear and should cause a move closer to the next strong resistance near 134.50.

A break below 131.80 will open up the downside for a decline towards support at 129.73.

GBP/USD - Collapsed yesterday. As I said in my post yesterday, that this cross looked very toppish. Currently the 38.2% support of the rise from 152.33 to 159.28 protects the downside, but it should just be a matter of time before this support at 156.40 gives away and a decline towards 155 and more likely 152.33 is seen.

USD/JPY - Is struggling a bit with resistance at 80.26, but it should just be a matter of time before we break above this resistance for a move closer to the Inverted S/H/S target near 82.60.

AUD/USD - Has activated a S/H/S top, which should produce a decline towards the next strong support near 103.85. The former neckline support at 106.95 should now act as resistance.

Regional Bank Index - Has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, which could be a warning for the broader indices, that they are at or very near the top and close to start the next serious decline.

Regional banks have clearly lead the rally since early October rallying more than 40%, while the DJI only have rallied about 25%.

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Is still hoovering near resistance at 13,000. Yes we have seen a minor break, but we have a massive negative divergence on the MACD-Indicator. The Dow Transportation is nowhere near confirming this high (See my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/dow-non-confirmation-between-dji-vs-djt.html) and now we are seeing the Regional Banks Index (KRE) breaking down too. I still think it's just a matter of time before important support at 12,750 is broken. If you have being holding long positions in the DJI I think it would be prudent to at least protecting yourself with a stop just below 12,750.

Shanghai Composite - Is now very closer to strong resistance and we could see a top any time now. However we need a break below 2,345 before the top can be confirmed.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; AUD/USD; DJI; Shanghai Comp. and Crude oil

EUR/USD - We saw the test closer to resistance at 133.00 and "only" needs a break below 131.80 to confirm, that wave 2 is done and wave 3 down has begun. As long as support at 131.80 holds risk is a break above 133.21, which will tell us that wave 2 isn't finished yet and calls for a continuation closer towards 134.50.
I still think the most likely call is, that wave is done near 133.00 and a break below 131.80 will be seen soon. Therefore I will try shorting EUR and buy USD here with a 133.30 stop.

AUD/USD - Has made a small S/H/S top, which also adds confidence in my call for a top in the USD soon. Remember, that GBP/USD also looks very toppish and USD/CAD will confirm the break below 99.26 as a failure-break if it breaks above 99.85. All evidence that points towards a bottom in the USD soon.

I do think the break below the S/H/S-neckline represents a good shorting opportunity in AUD against USD, but even better against TRY (See my post from yesterday here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_21.html)

Dow Jones Industrial - Tested just above 13,000 yesterday. The question now is was this the final top or do we need to see new highs? As long as support at 12,875 and more importantly 12,810 stays intact we could see a higher high, but with my upper target near 13,000 hit I would not bet on higher highs.

I must admit, that the rise since the 11,735 low has been relentless, but the trees doesn't grow into the skies and that goes for DJI too.

Shanghai Composite - Is at or very near to strong resistance and the upside potential should be very limited from here. However we need to see a break below 2,362 to confirm, that the rise since 2,132 is over and a new decline towards this low.

Crude oil - Has now broken both the Inverted S/H/S bottom and the resistance-line from the mid-2008 high, which does call for a continuation higher towards 114.83 and possibly 131.60, which marks the S/H/S-target.

The former neckline resistance at 103.44 now acts as support.

Is Natural Gas bottoming?

Natural Gas - Last month tried to break below its 20 year support-line and without success, this could be a clear warning, that Natural Gas is in a bottoming process.

Looking at the Monthly chart we can see a clear A-B-C decline form the December-2005 high at 15.78, while looking at the daily chart below we can see, that we last month tested the blue channel support-line and is about to break clearly above the red channel support-line at 2.65 after a throw over. A close above the red channel support will call for a move towards resistance in the 3.20 - 3.30 area, which is a rally of 20%.

It might just pay off to keep an eye on Natural Gas.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; AUD/TRY; CAD/TRY and NZD/TRY

EUR/USD - Needed on more new high to near the 133.00 area, but we are now at a make it or break it point. A break below 131.80 will confirm, that a top is in place for a decline towards 131.00 and 129.50, where strong neckline support is found. This support needs to break to see us back down to 126.45.

GBP/USD - Also needed one more move higher. This cross is looking way more toppish, than EUR/USD, but we need a break below 158.05 to confirm the top for a decline towards strong support near 156.40.

AUD/TRY - Is currently at support, but if this support breaks we could be looking at a much deeper decline towards the 164.50 - 165.00 area.

I like to trade the commodity currencies from the short side ag. TRY, as it will offer me a premium to the selling rate in the forward market. That means I both have the potential for a gain on the rate and on the interest differential between the two currencies.

CAD/TRY - Has broken below it's support, but have more support nearby at 173.10, but a break below here should leave the downside open for a move closer to 157.50.

NZD/TRY - Has broken the second rising support and is about to break below support at 145.35. A break below this support should be used to enter short NZD and long TRY positions as stops can be placed comfortably near to make it a low risk/high reward trade.

A break below 145.35 should call for a decline to the possible Double top neckline at 137.60, while stops can be placed just above 148.35 making it a 1/2.5 risk-reward trade and it could easily be a much better trade if the neckline support breaks too.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; TRY/JPY; The VIX-Index; DJI; Shanghai Comp.; Copper and Crude Oil

USD/CAD - Has broken slightly below the former 99.23 low, but be aware of the possibility of a failure break. To confirm the failure break we need resistance at 99.47 and more importantly resistance at 99.85 broken. A break above 99.85 will call for at least a move towards 100.80, but longer term I'm looking the top at 106.57 to be recaptured for a continuation towards the 117 - 118 area. A move like that should make CAD one of the ideal selling-candidates ag. TRY.

Original Post below
EUR/USD - We have tested the upper part of my target-area for wave 2, but are we done yet? We absolutely could be, but I can make a case for EUR/USD to rally a bit further towards 132.85 from where the next decline down through 131.35 should be the first indication that wave 3 down have begun and call for a decline below 129.73.

GBP/USD - Also looks like it could have finished red wave ii for the next powerful decline. However as long as support at 157.95 hasn't given away to the downside we must accept the possibility of one last new high near 158.85, but I do favor the downside resolution right away as my preferred count.

TRY/JPY - We have now clearly broken above the Double Bottom resistance-line at 44.70, which does call for a continuation towards 48.90. I warned of the possible imminent break above the resistance-line in my post from February 16 (see my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_16.html).

I would not be surprised to see the former resistance-line now support back-tested, but it's not a necessity. If however we see the back-test it's a nice opportunity to grab some TRY ag. JPY.

The VIX Index - Has broken below the Bollinger Band mid-line after having closed outside the upper Bollinger band, which normally calls for a return to the lower Bollinger band, but be aware that we are in some kind of bottom-building process, which can produce unexpected volatile move, both up and down. Longer term I'm looking for a break above 23.65 for a continuation towards 28.30

Dow Jones Industrial - We have clearly entered my target-area for wave 5 of C, but do we need one last move deeper into the target-area? As long as support at 12,719 isn't broken to the downside it's a possibility, but and break below 12,719 will be the first signal, that wave 5 is done and call for a continuation down towards 12,880 and a break below here we be the next good indication.

Shanghai Composite - The correction from 2,132 seem to be very close to its end, but we need a break below 2,340 to confirm the top and the beginning of a new decline below 2,132 longer term.

Dr. Copper - Seem to agree with the possible topping scenarios above. The possible Shooting Star candle we saw a couple of weeks ago was confirmed last week and we should soon see a break below support at 371 to confirm the next leg lower towards 325 and below.

Crude Oil - Is again testing the resistance-area between 103.44 - 104.75, but we also have the strong resistance-line from the mid-2008 top to the mid-2011 top just above at 106.80. If however this resistance is broken too. The upside springs wide open for a continuation higher towards 115 and the Inverted S/H/S target near 132.00.