USD Index & EUR/USD - We haven't quiet broken resistance in the 134.85 - 135.00 area, but at this point I feel pretty confident we will. The target after the break above 135.00 will be near 136.30, where we do find the next strong resistance area. For the USD-index that means a continuation down towards the low 77 area.
VIX Index & Dow Jones Industrial - Moved a little higher again. Most technical indicators now flashes red which is a warning and we should be very prudent up here. That said I would not be overly surprised to see a quick rally towards 13,073 or slightly above and an equally quick reversal to support near 12,990. A break below support near 12,990 will be the first indication, that a top might be in place. But we will need a break below 12,753 and more importantly 12,553 to confirm the top.
Gold - Has activated an inverted S/H/S bottom, which does call for a rally higher towards 2,020 - 2,060 area. That said there is a risk, that resistance at 1,802.60 will protect the upside for now and turn us down to make a second right shoulder, but that just speculation from my side at this point. If this scenario is to have any validation we need a clear break below the support at 1,703.60.
Silver - It has been some time since I last reviewed silver. The count shown above is my favored count at this point. The decline from 49.51 is clearly a three wave affair as is the rally from 26.04 and I expect we should reach 42.18 where wave c will be 1.618*wave a. From 49.18 we should see the next leg lower towards the 19 - 21 support area.
Crude oil - Has meet short term resistance near 110.00, but I will expect support in the 103.45 - 105.30 to hold for the next rally higher towards the 2011 top at 114.83. Longer term the S/H/S target near 131.60 should attract prices.
VIX Index & Dow Jones Industrial - Moved a little higher again. Most technical indicators now flashes red which is a warning and we should be very prudent up here. That said I would not be overly surprised to see a quick rally towards 13,073 or slightly above and an equally quick reversal to support near 12,990. A break below support near 12,990 will be the first indication, that a top might be in place. But we will need a break below 12,753 and more importantly 12,553 to confirm the top. 
Gold - Has activated an inverted S/H/S bottom, which does call for a rally higher towards 2,020 - 2,060 area. That said there is a risk, that resistance at 1,802.60 will protect the upside for now and turn us down to make a second right shoulder, but that just speculation from my side at this point. If this scenario is to have any validation we need a clear break below the support at 1,703.60.
Silver - It has been some time since I last reviewed silver. The count shown above is my favored count at this point. The decline from 49.51 is clearly a three wave affair as is the rally from 26.04 and I expect we should reach 42.18 where wave c will be 1.618*wave a. From 49.18 we should see the next leg lower towards the 19 - 21 support area.
Crude oil - Has meet short term resistance near 110.00, but I will expect support in the 103.45 - 105.30 to hold for the next rally higher towards the 2011 top at 114.83. Longer term the S/H/S target near 131.60 should attract prices.
Hi EWS
ReplyDeleteOne of the drawbacks of Elliott Wave are the number of different options available, hence I now concentrate more on using trend lines as my primary means of forecasting. My current outlook is that Silver is moving between two downward parallel lines. There is also a major trend line providing significant resistance through the Jan 11 and Nov 12 highs (not shown on your chart). Cannot say that I agree with your H&S approach. If the SPX turns down as expected and the Dollar Index rises, I would not expect Silver to do particularly well. That said, I am always please to read your blog and compare it to my own ideas.