Translate

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on Apple; USD-Index; EUR/USD; EUR/TRY; VIX-Index; DJI and Crude oil

USD/JPY - The neckline resistance at 78.65 might be breaking. A close above this neckline resistance at 78.65 will call for a continuation towards next resistance at 80.26 and most likely higher towards the Inverse S/H/S target at 82.70.
Stops on any longs should be placed just below 77.35.

NB! Keep an eye on TRY/JPY a close above the Double bottom neckline at 44.70 will trigger the bottom-formation for a rally towards 48.90 and probably even higher.

Original post below

Apple - Raced past resistance near 500, made a throw over at the resistance line turned back down and closed the day with an ugly Bearish engulfin candle. That doesn't border well for Apple in the coming days/weeks. We have a large gap to fill in the 430 - 444 area.
The last part of the rise from 363 has become as vertical a rise as you get them. A vertical rise is always a warning, that the rocket is running out of fuel and when the rise ends, a return to the starting point is almost always the outcome, which would call for a return to at least 363.
USD Index - Have broken above minor resistance at 79.55, which do call for a new rally towards the neckline resistance at 81.65 and a break here will leave the upside open for a move towards 91.60.
The former minor resistance at 79.55, should now act as support.
EUR/USD - Is almost a perfect inverse picture of the USD-Index, but also accounts for close to 59% of the USD-Index. The next minor hurdle to cross is support near 128.90 on the way to neckline support at 126.10. A clear break below the neckline at 126.10 will leave the downside open for a decline towards 109.
Minor resistance is now found at 130.30 and 131.00.
EUR/TRY - One of my favorite trades at the moment. Has broken out of a minor bear-flag, which calls for the next part of the decline towards the Double top target near 221.25.
Remember it might be a good idea to harvest some profit on short EUR and long TRY positions near the Double top target.
Longer term I looking for much lower levels, but we are becoming heavily oversold down here and TRY will not be immune to a an increased risk aversion.
VIX Index - Closed outside the upper Bollinger band yesterday, which normally will call for a return towards the Bollinger mid-band, but the close yesterday was pretty negative and we might see a follow-through to the upside towards the 23.65 area before we will see a set-back towards the mid-band.
Dow Jones Industrial - The possible count I showed yesterday at the opening, was quickly invalidated, which leaves us we two possible counts. One is that we already have seen an important top at 12,922 and a decline back towards important support at 12,529 is under way.
The other short term possibility is, that we are in a wave iv of 5, which means we still have one more new high to just above 12,922 in the cards. For the count to stay valid we can't break below 12,719 as that would leave us with an overlap between wave iv and i, which is not allowed.
Crude oil - My preferred count is, that we have begun the next major down-leg in wave [C], but we are in no way out of the woods yet, and the situation in Iran is a major issue here. We are trading just below massive resistance, but we can't close our eyes to the possible inverted S/H/S bottom, that would call for a continuation higher towards 132 if trigger upon a break above 105.80.
The S/H/S neckline is at 103.50, but I will have to see the red resistance line at 105.80 broken before I will make the call for a move towards 132.

No comments:

Post a Comment