AUD/USD - We are currently flirting with resistance near 108, will it hold or not? I must admit, that right now the decline from 110.80 does look corrective, which does call for a new challenge of this strong resistance, which means that 108 most likely will break, but I would be much more careful as we approached strong resistance at 110.80. I really don't see this resistance broken for real. Yes we might see a short term spike through it, but nothing lasting in my humble view.Maybe the answer is to be found in S&P 500. The correlation between the two has been remarkably high. See my view on S&P 500 below.
Any break below 103.85 will call for a new decline towards 98.50 and likely also 94.00.
VIX Index - Is still locked within the wedge (ending diagonal), but the downside pressure is clearly loosing momentum, but we need a break above the wedge resistance line at 18.60 to confirm, that the wedge is complete for a return back to at least 23.64, but more likely a return to 35.85 will be in the cards when the wedge finally is confirm over.
S&P 500 - As is the case for Dow Jones Industrial, the S&P 500 continues to rally. However the extreme complacency in the market, should call for caution. Still I would not be surprised to see a return to the May high at 1,370 in some kind of a double top pattern. As can be seen above two triangles mirrored in the vertical mid-line does suggest, that we are looking at a couple of weeks more before the termination of the right triangle is complete and a new decline sets in. Again we could spike through 1,370, but be careful as we could easily be looking at some kind of failure up there calling for a change in the trend... A break below 1,285 will be the first warning, that the ongoing uptrend has matured.
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