USD Index & EUR/USD - The pictures is pretty much the same just inverted to each other. We are still not out of the woods and could still see more USD weakness, but the price action of Friday is a warning, that the ongoing downtrend for USD is vulnerable to a sudden turnaround. For the USD Index we still need a break above 79.55 while we need a break below 130.20 in EUR/USD to confirm a change in trend.
GBP/USD - Maybe the leader here. We have seen a break below the steep rising support line. Ideally we will now see this former support line back tested and resulting in a rejection and a break below 157.25 calling for a deeper decline towards a least the 155 - 155.80 area.
USD/JPY - has been the tricky one. It broke below support at 76.55, but the break was quickly reverted making it a failure break, which normally sparks a fast reversal in the opposite direction. However we need a break above resistance at 78.30 to confirm the above count and a new challenge of the important resistance at 79.50 and a break here we confirm 75.57 as an important long term bottom.
AUD/USD - I still regard the test of 110.80 as an important top. At 110.80 wave [C] = [A] in length, but the reaction from 98.09 became much bigger than first anticipated. However a break below the steep rising support line at 106 and more importantly a break below 103.50 will call for a new challenge of support at 98.09 and probably much lower.
USD/CAD - Stall near support at 99.05 and all we need now is a break above resistance at 100.75 and more importantly 101.75 to confirm the bottom and the next rally higher towards the 104.25 - 105.25 resistance area. The risk as long as 100.75 isn't broken to the upside is a one last decline towards support close to 98.85 before up again.
EUR/TRY - One of my favorite trades at this point. The minor bear-flag, which has been building is close to break and we should see the next part of the decline towards the double top target near 221.26. Remember to take some profit on long TRY-position and short EUR-positions as we get close to this target.
EUR/TRY - One of my favorite trades at this point. The minor bear-flag, which has been building is close to break and we should see the next part of the decline towards the double top target near 221.26. Remember to take some profit on long TRY-position and short EUR-positions as we get close to this target. Long term I could easily see EUR/TRY much lower, but we might just need a bigger correction as we approach the 221.26 target.
VIX Index - Shoot up on Friday and warned, that the uptrend in DJI and S&P 500 isn't due able in the long run. However we are not out of the woods yet. We could easily see a return to the Bollinger mid-band near 19.03, which will force the DJI and S&P 500 higher close towards 12.900, but there isn't much more rum to the upside and a break below 12,743 will clearly ease the upside pressure, but we need a break below 12,570 and 12,529 to confirm the top and call for a much deeper decline.
VIX Index - Shoot up on Friday and warned, that the uptrend in DJI and S&P 500 isn't due able in the long run. However we are not out of the woods yet. We could easily see a return to the Bollinger mid-band near 19.03, which will force the DJI and S&P 500 higher close towards 12.900, but there isn't much more rum to the upside and a break below 12,743 will clearly ease the upside pressure, but we need a break below 12,570 and 12,529 to confirm the top and call for a much deeper decline.
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