Elliott wave and technical analysis on TRY/JPY; CAD/TRY; AUD/TRY and NZD/TRY

DJI (10 minutes) - I just wanted to show you a very valid short term count for the Dow Industrial Index. If this count is correct we should see a continuation higher towards 12,920 - 13,020 area.
A break below 12,825 will be need to invalidated this count.

Original post belowTRY/JPY - Has had a nice rally since my post on January 25 (see the post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-analysis-on-tryjpy.html). As I said then it might be time harvest a nice profit here at the possible double bottom neckline for a possible set-back towards the 42.55 - 42.70 area. Re-enter long TRY and short JPY here or upon a direct break above the neckline resistance at 44.70 as, that would call for a continuation higher towards at least the 49 area.

I think that the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) is quite overvalued at this point. We still need more evidence, that a deeper decline in these currencies is underway, but a nice way to play an eventual decline could be selling them against TRY.
TRY has far higher yield than any of these currencies, which will give you a premium in addition to the price where you enter the position, if you do it in the forward market.

Lets see what these TRY-Crosses looks like from a technical perspective.

CAD/TRY - Might be in a top-building process, forming a possible Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top. It's still very early in the process of building the left shoulder, but a break below the neckline support at 175.50 should trigger a decline towards the 163.10 - 163.20 area.
Ideally the process of forming the left shoulder should take more time, but the shoulders don't have to be symmetrical in neither size nor in duration. However if we are going to see a move higher towards 183.00 in the left shoulder it will make an excellent entry with a stop just above the top of the head at 187.60 on a close basis.

AUD/TRY - Has produced a variation of the "normal" S/H/S-top. However a break below the pink support line at 185.50 should call for a decline towards at least 179.20 and more likely close to or just below the 170.00 area.

A warning, that a break to the downside is coming could be a break below the MACD-Indicators support line, so keep a close eye on that indicator.

NZD/TRY - Could be building a possible Double top. We have a very clear negative divergence on the MACD-Indicator, but we need confirmation in form of a break below the Double top neckline at 137.55, but a break below the minor support line at 145.50 on a close basis could be a pre-warning, that a test of the neckline is coming. The aggressive trader will but TRY and short NZD on a break below 145.50 with a stop just above 148.50 on a close basis.

Please be aware, that non of the above mentioned formation has yet been confirmed, so trade carefully at this point and never ever forget your stop-loss.