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Friday, February 10, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; Copper; VIX-Index; DJI and Apple

USD Index - I know I said on Wednesday, that we might see a decline all the way down towards 77, but as I was taking a closer look to the USD-Index I noticed the possibility of an inverted S/H/S bottom with two shoulders on each side. If this is the case we might be very close to the bottom near 78 or maybe even have bottomed out.
We still need a break above the steep declining resistance line and more importantly a break above 79.52 to confirm the bottom, but this is a valid possibility.

Original post below
EUR/USD - Is still fighting with the S/H/S neckline resistance. We saw a failure break yesterday, but the 133.30 resistance just above the neckline resistance at 133.05 held the rally back. As long as support at 131.60 and more importantly 130.25 protects the downside we can't exclude a run closer to the 134 area, but a break below 131.60 will ease the upside pressure considerably
Copper - Dr. Copper is facing neckline resistance near 402, at the same time we can see a bearish divergence building on the MACD indicator. That could mean, that the right shoulder of the possibly big S/H/S top is nearing its end? However we need a break below 389 and more importantly 380 to ease the upside pressure.
VIX Index - Keeps crawling higher and closed above the wedge resistance line, calling for a return to at least 23.45. At the same time the DJI also keeps heading higher making the divergence between the two bigger. Something will soon have to give in... I think it will be DJI topping, but time will show.
Dow Jones Industrial - As stated above the DJI keeps moving higher into the triple resistance, at the same time the MACD-Indicator is non-confirming, the VIX-Index is non-confirming. Dr. Copper might be close to strong resistance, but all this is to no matter if we don't take out support at 12,782 and more importantly 12,529 as that should push us much lower.
Apple - Is just below strong resistance at 500 and it might be a good time to take profit, at least for a return to 361 area and possibly even lower, but only a break below the long term support line at 310 will call for a much deeper decline.

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