It appears that we now have a complete five wave rally from 76.99, which is just wave 1 or A in the bigger picture. I prefer the more bullish count, that we have only seen wave 1, but time will show. Looking at the rally from 76.99, we can see that the wave ii - iv channel was hit and overthrown slightly at 84.72. Wave iii and v was almost perfectly the same length (wave v was just 9 small pips longer than wave iii). Wave iv became a triangle and wave v ended perfectly at the triangles Apex (the the to converging lines meet). I will now look for a break below 83.59 confirming that a correction has begun. I expect a simple deep zig-zag as wave 2. Ideally we will see wave 2 falling to the 80.04 -80.39 area, from where the next rally higher towards at least 87.78, but we could very well see wave 3 extend higher.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
USD/JPY - Wave 1 is likely over
I was having an extra look at the hourly USD/JPY chart today. Yes we had an overthrow at the upper channel resistance-line, but I wouldn't surprised if support at 83.59 would protect the downside for one more challenge of the channel resistance-line before wave 1 is finally done. Use 83.59 as a guide for the mood. Above we should still be open for a little more upside (not much) and below that was it... and wave 2 has begun. Original post below: 
It appears that we now have a complete five wave rally from 76.99, which is just wave 1 or A in the bigger picture. I prefer the more bullish count, that we have only seen wave 1, but time will show. Looking at the rally from 76.99, we can see that the wave ii - iv channel was hit and overthrown slightly at 84.72. Wave iii and v was almost perfectly the same length (wave v was just 9 small pips longer than wave iii). Wave iv became a triangle and wave v ended perfectly at the triangles Apex (the the to converging lines meet). I will now look for a break below 83.59 confirming that a correction has begun. I expect a simple deep zig-zag as wave 2. Ideally we will see wave 2 falling to the 80.04 -80.39 area, from where the next rally higher towards at least 87.78, but we could very well see wave 3 extend higher.
It appears that we now have a complete five wave rally from 76.99, which is just wave 1 or A in the bigger picture. I prefer the more bullish count, that we have only seen wave 1, but time will show. Looking at the rally from 76.99, we can see that the wave ii - iv channel was hit and overthrown slightly at 84.72. Wave iii and v was almost perfectly the same length (wave v was just 9 small pips longer than wave iii). Wave iv became a triangle and wave v ended perfectly at the triangles Apex (the the to converging lines meet). I will now look for a break below 83.59 confirming that a correction has begun. I expect a simple deep zig-zag as wave 2. Ideally we will see wave 2 falling to the 80.04 -80.39 area, from where the next rally higher towards at least 87.78, but we could very well see wave 3 extend higher.
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Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteHow much higher do you think wave 5 can climb?