Translate

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

EUR/USD - recount on the micro waves

Hmmmm! Not just what I had expected, but as I said micro count can be tough to read.

Okay lets start with the most important issue. The break above 143.62 as that would leave us with an overlap between purpel wave iv and purpel wave i, which is not allowed, so that alone would force me to re-count the decline from 145.15. I have done that and my preferred count is seen above. I do think think that the decline to 141.55 was sub-wave (i) and we are now in the final stages of sub-wave (ii). The target-area for sub-wave (ii) is from 144.44 - 144.67 with the most likely topping place at 144.44 (2.618 times wave A).

The reason why I don't see 144.12 as the final top is, that the MACD was at it's high at that point (typical the ending of wave 3 of whatever degree).

A break below 143.52 would indicate that the top is in place and sub-wave (iii) has begun.

The altenate count is, that we have only seen a flat correction from 145.20 and need one more new high in the 145.55 - 145.70 area. A break above 144.67 would make this count the preferred count.

2 comments:

  1. Hello EWS,

    thanks again for your outstanding work here.

    The waves are causing some headache at the moment:

    Take a look at your wave V (down) and the corresponding MACD. It has at wave V the lowest reading, but it should have it at wave III.

    Even at 15, 5 and 1 minute you have the lowest reading there at wave V.

    Every time I see such a thing a wave C comes to mind. In a wave C the highest pressure is often in wave 5 of C.

    What do you think?

    Best to you,

    Markus

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Infinitus,

    Thank you!

    Agreed and by now the answer has been given. A C-wave it was and we have seen a new high.

    It has been a very tough counting the micro waves correctely since the 145.20 top. There is a saying:

    "When you think the top or bottom is in place, the is always one more wave lower or higher needed..."

    I hate it, but it's true a lot of the time. We just have to be flexible ;o)

    The very best to you too
    EWS

    ReplyDelete