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Tuesday, April 12, 2011

EUR/USD - Still no evidence of the top

The top could well be in place with the test of 144.88, but we still have no evidence, that the top is in place. Yes we have tested support at 143.81, but we haven't broken clearly below it to confirm the top. As long as 143.81 isn't broken we could see one more new high near the 145.25 - 145.50 area. Looking at the micro count since the top at 144.88, the decline does not look impulsive, which only leave us with one alternative to a impulsive wave i, which is some kind of Leading diagonal. If we have seen a Leading diagonal, it will of the expanding kind as wave (iii) was bigger than wave (i) and wave (v) bigger than wave (iii). Wave (iii) was 1.618 times longer than wave (i), while wave (v) was 1.27 times longer than wave (iii). If we have seen a Expanded Leading Diagonal, we should expect wave ii to retace a large part of wave i, as many will see this correction as an oppotunity to buy EUR again.

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