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Thursday, April 7, 2011

EUR/USD - Topped or topping!

I have added some extra information to the short-term picture. First let me note, that my putting the different v's just above yesterdays top, doesn't nessesarily mean that we have seen the final top. As long as 142.50 protects the downside we still could see a move higher towards the 144.25 area. That said we have a lot of evidence in the short term picture, that the top could be in place with the test of 143.50. First we have time-equality (pink boxes) between wave (i) through wave (iii) and wave (v). Second we have double divergence between wave (iii) and wave (v) and a minor divergence between red wave iii and red wave v. Thrid we have broken above 142.81 and fourth we have a five wave Expanding Ending Diagonal, which has fulfiled all requirments. All points adding to a possible finished structure since 128.71. The only thing needed now is a break below 142.50, which would add to the probability that the top is in place. Any risks? Yes it's possible that the top at 143.50 only was red wave iii and we still need red wave iv and v. I don't prefer this count, but only a break below 140.59 would kill that possibility for good.

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