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Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Silver - In a moon shot

Silver is on it's way to the moon or at least so i seems. Yes the US economy is in bad shape. The Euro-zone doesn't look to good either, but can the rocket keep its momentum going? No way, there is a limit! The only question is where...

Let me start by saying that I will not stand in front of this rocket, but through the Elliott wave priciple I at least have a the possibility to make a qualified assumtion where the top might be.

Looking at the monthly chart above, I will say we are in wave 5 in the rally that started at 3.51 in February 1991. Silver is a commodity and we know, that the longest wave in a impulsive rally in commodities happens in wave 5, which is exactly what we are seeing. Wave 5 is about to end wave iii. I would expect a top near here as wave iii of 5 already is longer than 2.618 times wave i of 5. that should be followed by a wave iv and then the final fifth wave towards 53.36 where wave 5 will be 1.618 times longer than wave 3.

We will have to see what happens, but one thing is for sure... This rally will end!







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