AUD/USD - Topping?

I haven't written about AUD since the end of January. Link to that post below: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/01/audusd-time-for-next-part-of-decline.html In that post I said, that a break above 102.53 would target the 105-106 area, which is where we are now. Therefore it's time to take a new look at the Aussie. First lets take a look at the monthly chart. The rally from the bottom at 47.73 in April 2001 to the top at 94.01 in November 2007 was a nice five wave rally. This rally was followed by an Expanded flat correction down to 60.04 in October 2008. Since then we have seen a new five wave rally up to 105.03 which means, that we now is in my target-zone. Therefore the obvious question will be, are we to find the top soon? Zooming in on the daily chart and the final rally since 60.04 we can see a clear five wave rally. We have double divergence at the MACD indicator and finaly we are looking at to resistance-lines just above. All pointing towards a top soon, but are we at the top?

Zooming in further on the hourly chart and the last part of the rally since 97.04, we again can see a five wave rally into the target-zoon. The final rally seem to be an Ending Diagonal. I would like to see a throw-over the Ending Diagonal resistance-line followed by a break below 104.18, which will be the first minor confimation that the top is in place for a decline to at least 98.00 and probably 97.04. A clear break below 97.04 will extend the losses towards the top of the 87 area.

Looking at the entire rally from 47.73 the best fit is, that an Zig-Zag has formed. The ideal target for wave C is 106.47, where wave C will be equal to wave A in length. That said we have to be open to a much more bullish case. The rally from 60.04 could be just wave i of a much bigger wave 3 higher. If this is the case I would expect the near term correction to be rather small followed by a very powerfull wave iii of 3 rally through the top of wave i. This is not the preferred count at this point, but we have to stay flexible.