Eventhough I see the possibility for a move higher in the DOW, S&P 500, gold and crude oil and a move slightly lower in USD, the sentiment are now at so extrem levels, that a major trend change could happen anytime now.
S&P 500 and the Nasdaq has reached bullish sentiment at 92%, which is even higher than the levels seen in October 2007. Bullish sentiment towards the USD is again at only 3%. Looking at gold and silver, 92% is bullish on gold and 93% on silver, this simply can't go on for much longer, How is left to buy?
On tuesday, September the 22, we will have Autum Equinox. We have seen more times, that big events happens around that time a year to just be a coincident. Especialy in the currency market Equinox has been the cause of extrem violent swings. Could we see that effect again? Absolutly!
With the USD, AUD, NZD, CAD and EUR at extrems, A sudden turn around shouldn't come as any surpris. Maybe GBP is the frontrunner this time around. Have you noticed how GBP didn't make a new top against USD, when AUD, NZD, CAD and the EUR did? GBP is looking very weak at this time.
Just maybe the trigger for the next market surpris isn't to come from the United Stats, but from the UK. The FTSE 100 has made a prefect double Zig-zag and are currently testing very strong resistance and the top could be close at hand. At 5,190.78 the second Zig-zag (blue) will equal the first Zig-zag (black) in length. If we count the numbre of days from the bottom in March to the top of the first Zig-zag it took 48 days. Currently the second Zig-zag from the bottom of wave "X" has taken 47 days, so monday could be it...
No comments:
Post a Comment