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Friday, September 25, 2009

EUR/USD - Important support still intact, but...

(Click at the picture to enlarge)

The short term support at 146.06 is still intact, but it should only be a matter of time before it's broken. As long as it's not broken it leaves us with an alternative count, calling the move from 148.42 to 146.85 wave a of iv. Wave b ended at 148.03 and wave c ended 146.12 in overnight trading. If this alternate count has any validity important support at 146.06 must not be broken at any time. A break below 146.06 will immiately ad full confidence in the above count.

I do favor the above count over the altenate count, because of the massive both long and short term negative divergence. The almost perfect Fibonacci relationship between wave i through wave iii, where wave v was 0.382% of the distance of wave i through wave iii.

The break out of the Channel also adds confindece in the impulsive count, but again we need a break below 146.06 to realy get things going.

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