Just as a reminder, I would like show you the long term Pictures and Counts this weekend. I feel confident that wave 4 ended at 118.73 and that wave 5 is developing. We don't have the final confirmations yet, but a higher low above 118.73 and a break above 126.04 should do the job and confirm that wave 5 is indeed developing and take us to at least 131.59. However a rally higher to 140.59 should not come as a surprise.
I still think that we have seen a important long term bottom at 1.4966 and that the next major rally should be seen soon. Looking at the long term Count we have seen a major flat correction developing since August 1992 a flat correction that ended with the low at 1.4966 in August 2012, that's a 20 year correction. The perfect Fibonacci time sequence would be a low in August 2013, where the flat correction would have taken 21 years, but I would gladly accept the 20 year low as the perfect termination of the flat correction. The big question is of cause whether we should be looking for a rally towards the channel resistance way up there near 2.5000. I would expect a rally like that, but it could take many years to reach that target.
I'm sure that many are looking for a top in this cross as they think the rally from the low at 75.57 is close to climax. I don't think we are anywhere near a top other than maybe a short term top. If my Count is correct we have only just begun correcting the major decline from 1976 and it will take years for this correction to run its course. At a absolute minimum for this correction I'm looking for a rally to the top of wave 4, which was at 147.63, that is a 56% rally from the current level.
We might have seen the bottom of wave 4 and is in the very early stages of wave 5 to above 1,920.70. That said we still need more Prof. Short term a break above resistance at 1,626 would be a first clue, that we might have seen the bottom, while a break above the Falling channel resistance-line near 1,675 is need to confirm that wave 4 is indeed over and wave 5 is developing.
It has been a long time since I last looked at Nat. Gas, but my long term view for a rally towards 5.00 and likely even 6.00 is still very much intact. A break above the resistance-line here at 3.96 will confirm the next rally higher towards 5.00 and as I see it, it should just be a question of time before we break above this resistance-line.
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