We are still locked in a narrow range, but it seems like this x-wave correction from 118.73 is coming to an end soon. As long as support at 121.54 and more importantly support at 121.11 protects the downside we are looking for one last minor rally higher towards 122.75 to end this x-wave. However a direct break below 121.54 will be the first indication, that this x-wave correction already has terminated, while a break below 121.11 will confirm it and call for a new decline to 118.73 on the way down to the ideal target at 117.28, where I expect this larger wave 4 correction to end.
The expected decline seems to be a harder fight than I expected. That said, we continue to make progress towards the downside and for the short term, I expect to see resistance at 1.5739 protect the upside for a break below 1.5644, which confirms the next decline to 1.5597 and lower towards 1.5550. My ideal target for this decline is near 1.5200, but we could see a lower just below support at 1.5390.
Hi EWS need a bit of your brain power only if you have time with abc corrections am i right in thinking usaly ther is never more than 3x abc with xyz to complet a wave 4 from 3 i am looking at usdtyr and looks like abc from 3 top and curently on x now looking for next a wave down
ReplyDeleteYour input would great as trying to learn
Best Regards JT
Hi JT,
ReplyDeleteYou are right. There can only be three abc correction in a row. If you can count x-y-z and if you have a divergence on say your RSI-indicator that should be a pretty safe bet, that wave 4 is over and wave 5 should be developing soon.
Hope it helps otherwise let me know and I will do my best to guide you.
Kind regards
EWS
Thanks EWS for your time and input
ReplyDeleteBest Regards JT
eurjpy is in perfect place to open sell order!
ReplyDeleteHello EWS,
ReplyDeleteMay I ask how long did it take you to become so proficient with the Elliot Wave Principle, and was Frost and Prechter the only source this knowledge or are there other books that you find equally as valuable?
Keep up the great work,
Duane
Hi Duane,
ReplyDeleteI have used technical analysis for 26 years now. My interest for the Elliott Wave Principle was awaken from day one, so i did a lot of reading Frost and Prechter was of cause a must. That was followed by a lot of practice and counting waves. In 1989 Robert Balan publiced his book "Elliott Wave Principle applied to the Foreign Exchange Markets" (you can read it for free here: http://it.scribd.com/doc/7122262/Balan-Robert-Elliott-Wave-Principle-Forex )
That was followed by lots of practice and counting waves.
Last year Ramki publiced his book "Five Wave to Financial Freedom (you can only buy it at Amazon here: http://www.amazon.com/Five-Waves-Financial-Freedom-ebook/dp/B005JC5WWU)
Ramki's book is an easy read, but the EWP-stuff is of the highest quality and it's so cheap that everyone interested in EWP should own a copy.
I'm not sure if Ramki mentioned this in his book, but the Elliott Wave Principle most value aspect is not to be right, but know when you are wrong and be flexible and ajust.
The wost thing you can do to your self is to be wrong (and know it because EWP has told you so), but keep believing you are right, because you are to proud to admit you was wrong or even worse to stupid to admit you where wrong. I have been there, tried it and done it more than enough times to know, that you will not win that game.
Hope it gives you an idea of the hard work ahead of you, but there is nothing as rewarding to see a move up or down unfolding and being able to ride it with a very good idea of where we are going and when to pull the plug.
I will do my very best to keep up the work.
Kind regards
EWS
EurJpy do you still think this is wave X?
ReplyDeleteHi Zink.
ReplyDeleteIt's a big move I must admit and much bigger than what I was looking for.
I still regard it as an x-wave, but any break above 125.22 and I wrong and wave 5 is already developing.
Kind regards
EWS
Thank you EWS for your thoughtful response. Your remarks concerning being wrong were profound and I will try to keep these thoughts present when ever I am trading regardless of the methodology. Thank you very much for the additional EWP resources.
ReplyDeleteDuane
Your target for end of wave5 133?
ReplyDeleteEWS - nice call on Facebook! Is there anyway to know if wave 5 will end at $33 or closer to $35 at this point? Thx!
ReplyDeleteHi Zink,
ReplyDeleteThe first target for wave 5 would be at 131.38, however I feel that we will likely see wave 5 closer to 135.35, but only time will show where we can expect wave 5 to peak.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Hedgiefundman,
ReplyDeleteSorry, but there is no way telling where wave 5 will peak. That said we can calculate some possible target already and they are first 32.42, where wave 5 will be 38.2% of the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 top the top of wave 3. The next target is at 34.15, where it will have traveled 50% of that same distance and then most likely target at 35.89, where it will have traveled 61.8% of that distance.
However as wave 5 unfoldes we can calculate some more possible targets and hopefully get a cluster of targets which will give us a more precis ending point of wave 5.
Kind regards
EWS
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing, I will bookmark and be back again
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