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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EYR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

As expected the gap from yesterday is almost closed. We should expect resistance at 124.21 to protect the upside for a minor correction back to the 122.57 - 122.87 area from where we expect the next rally higher. That said we still need more confirmation, that wave iii of 5 is developing. A break above 124.84 and of cause more important a break above 125.79 will confirm, that wave iii of 5 is indeed ongoing. The target for wave iii of 5 is at 133.54, where wave iii will be 1.618 times the length of wave i, but until the break above 124.84 we must accept the possibility of a small set-back towards the 122.57 - 122.87 area first.
EUR/NZD

I'm still looking for yesterdays gap to be closed, which means I'm still looking for a rally higher towards 1.5776 as long as support at 1.5656 protects the downside. From 1.5776 or upon a break below 1.5656 I expects a new firm test of the triangle support near 1.5600 and a break below here confirms the downside thrust towards at least 1.5390 and likely even lower towards the ideal target near 1.5200. It will take a break above 1.5807 and more importantly a break above 1.5917 to invalidate our call for one last decline. 

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