It seems that we finally have found a bottom, of wave ii of 5, at 119.74. The rally of 119.74 clearly has impulsive characters, which adds confidence in our call, that wave iii of 5 higher have begun. Short term we would like to see support at 120.35 protect the downside for a rally above 120.85, which confirms the next rally higher towards at least 121.50 and preferable higher towards 123.90 in a powerful rally higher. Only a break below 119.74 will invalidate our bullish call and indicate, that wave ii still is ongoing.
Today I would like to introduce my alternate count, which is, that a wave 4 triangle is unfolding. If this is the case we will see a rally higher towards 124.50 in wave D and then the final decline in wave E towards 121.59 from where the trust out of triangle towards the upside is expected to take place. It should be noted, that no matter which of my counts is the correct one, the outcome will be the same, which is that one more rally above 127.70 is to be expected in wave 5.
It seems like we have seen the final bottom of the expanding triangle, which has been unfolding since September 2012, at 1.5227 just above my ideal target at 1.5209. The rally of 1.5227 does have impulsive characters and if this is the case we should ideally see support at 1.5279 protect the downside for a break above 1.5342 for the next powerful rally higher towards at least 1.5409 and ideally higher towards 1.5623 as the next long term rally starts to unfold. Short term only a break below 1.5227 will invalidate our bullish call, but even if a break below 1.5227 is seen, the downside potential should be very limited.
Hi, if 1.5227 holds and in a case of breaking above 1.5623 do you expect this new rally to break this year high at 1.6359, too?
ReplyDeleteHi Marjan,
ReplyDeleteYes that would be my expectation.
You can see my long term Count for EUR/NZD here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/03/long-term-elliott-wave-analysis-of.html
Kind regards
EWS
thank's EWS, that's my view from the fundamental aspect - Europeans will bring their capital home due to the domestic problems, just like Japanese were doing before this new aggressive policy. So, long eur/nzd.
ReplyDeleteregards
Long all eur/xxx?
ReplyDeleteHi Zink,
ReplyDeleteNo I don't think that would be a good idea. I still think that we should see more downside in EUR/USD. Especially if we see an economic set-back.
I expect to see DJIA top during 2013 followed by a major decline like we saw from 2007 to 2009, this time I would expect a bottom in 2015 and if my expectations come true, then we should see major volatility in EUR/USD, but likely moe to the downside than towards the upside. I would prefer to be long EUR against AUD, CAD, and NZD as they are all currencies that have gained the most since 2009 and likely would stand to loos the most if we see a new major economic downswing.
Kind regards
EWS