With the break above my invalidation point at 125.89, I have to conclude that wave 4 did indeed terminate at 118.73, short of the ideal target at 117.28. So my focus will again be towards the upside as wave 5 develops. The first target for wave 5 is at 131.39, where wave 5 will have traveled 38.2% of the distance from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3. That said, I do think that eight the 50% or even the 61.8% targets at 135.36 and 139.32 will more likely be seen. For the short term we should be looking for wave ii of 5, which should be our entry for the next powerful rally higher. Before we see wave ii of 5 begin we will likely see one last minor rally higher towards 126.75, from where wave ii down to at least 123.80 should be expected.
Resistance near 1.5880 rejected the test once again yesterday and I'm still looking for a break below 1.5718 to confirm a test of the triangle support-line at 1.5600, once the triangle support at 1.5600 breaks we are looking for the final thrust towards the downside in the major expanding triangle, which has been developing since early September 2012. The ideal downside target for this last decline is near 1.5200, but we must accept the possibility that a break below 1.5390 will be enough to fulfil all requirements for the expanding triangle. Short term we should expect to see minor resistance at 1.5801 will protect the upside for a break below 1.5752 for the next move lower towards important support at 1.5718.
Hi EWS just out of interest in an ideal world nowing that we have a wave 5 coming would you look for long entry on and extreme corrective C or do you wait for other conformation.
ReplyDeleteBest Regards JT.
Good morning EWS:
ReplyDeleteHaving a look to the pairs EURUSD and USDJPY, I see this:
You know that EURJPY has two different legs, EURUSD and USDJPY, if yoy see the first one, I would say that the first one is doing a "B" uptrend movement in the short term. Also the second one is going to do a uptrend movement in the short term. In fact, I think this one is doing the final movement or 5 wave of (3).
So, in the short term, probably we will see a uptrend movement in EURJPY.
But after this, both of them -EURUSD and USDJPY - will have a downtrend movement, the first one in a C movement, the second one in the (4) wave.
Have you wath both pairs?
Best Regards, MC
Hi JT,
ReplyDeleteYes that's right. I would look for a long entry on what I expect would be the extrem of wave c. The reason is that I know what must not happen and that is a break below 118.73.
So let's say that wave ii of 5 corrected 61.8% of wave i it would decline to 121.67 and placing a stop at 118.70 should make it a safe entry. However if you where to see a break below 118.73 you know, that wave 4 wasn't over yet.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Manuel,
ReplyDeleteI don't understand where you are going.
I would never look at EUR/USD and USD/JPY trying to figure out where EUR/JPY is going. I my world I would be guessing whivh pair would do what.
I have tried it, I have done it and I have been there and it has never been a succes. I have always lost out when trying to outguess the Market.
So if you whan to know where EUR/JPY is going, then look at EUR/JPY and forget the rest.
Kind regards
EWS
Thanks EWS talk Soon
ReplyDeleteBest Regards JT
It seems wave ii of 5wave in eurjpy will be a triangle!
ReplyDeleteHi Zink, it seems there is a leading diaginal triangle in the firt wave of 5
DeleteThanks a lot EWS
ReplyDeleteBest Regards
Would really like to see a Shanghai market update also any more thoughts on Novo, very strange chart
ReplyDeleteHi John,
ReplyDeleteI have posted the charts and will update the text later today.
Kind regards
EWS