Saturday, June 18, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD - Long Term View


EUR/USD - Long Term View

The decline since the Juli 2008 high at 1.6038 is corrective in nature and therefore likely to be a larger degree X-wave. 

Breaking down this X-wave a clear three wave decline was seen from 1.6038 to 1.1876 as wave [A] and was followed by another clear three wave rally in wave [B] from 1.1876 to 1.4939. This means that wave [C] currently is developing. 

This [C] should be in five wave (impulsive) and as can be seen on the chart, the first three waves is complete and wave 4 is currently unfolding. 

As wave 2 was a simple, but deep, zig-zag correction that corrected slightly above 61.8% of wave 1 the alternation principle says that wave 4 should be more complex and be a shallow correction of wave 3. As can be seen wave 4 clearly is more complex in character and has not even corrected 38.2% of wave 3. 

The best fit for wave 4 as of now is that a triangle consolidation is unfolding. A triangle contains five waves from "a" to "e" and we are currently in wave "d" still missing wave "e". Once wave "e" is complete and thereby wave 4, a new impulsive decline towards at least 0.9880 should be expected.   

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