Monday, June 20, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of Crude Oil - Long term View


Crude Oil - Long term View 

Since the June 2007 high at 147.27 a double zig-zag correction has been unfolding. The first zig-zag was a very sharp decline seen from the 147.27 high to a low of 33.20 as wave [W]. From the 33.20 low a corrective [X] wave was seen to 114.81 setting the stage for the second zig-zag decline to a low of 26.06 in early February. 

The big question now is, whether the ongoing rally will represent a new impulsive rally or another [X] wave should be expected? I do prefer the [X] wave count unfolding from the 26.06 low, but no matter what count proves correct, we should see much more upside in the weeks/months ahead. 

The first important target to look for is seen at 62.58, from where a correction to 49.00 and maybe even lower to 42.72 should be expected before the next big rally higher towards the long term resistance-line from the 2008 higher. 

If the resistance-line breaks the rally is expected to all the way back to 107.76, but the resistance-line will likely not be broken on the first attempt if at all. 

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