Saturday, June 18, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD - Long term View

GBP/USD - Long term View 

GBP/USD (Cable) has been unfolding in a series of three wave declines and rallies. The last complete corrective rally terminated in November 2007 at 2.1161 as an [X] wave, from where a new three wave decline is unfolding. 

The first part of this new three wave decline saw a decline from 2.1161 to 1.3504 as wave A and was followed by wave B to 1.7191 an almost 50% correction of wave A and wave C lower is currently unfolding. 

The ideal target for wave C is seen at 0.9534 where wave C = A, but first the long term support at 1.3685 needs to be cleared. This long term support has been able to protect the downside since 1986, but when it breaks there will be no looking back for a long time. However, because of its importance, it can't be ruled out that it will be able to protect the downside for a more complex wave B, but for now the long term focus should remain towards the downside. 

Only a break above resistance at 1.4770 will ease the downside pressure and indicate a more complex wave B correction is unfolding (see the chart below). 

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