Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of European Weakness - DAX, FTSE100 and CAC 40 all pointing lower


European Weakness - DAX, FTSE100 and CAC 40 all pointing lower
All of the major European indices has completed S/H/S tops call for more downside. 
The German DAX should be headed lower towards at least the S/H/S measured target at 8,877, but the Elliott wave count calls for even more downside towards 7,750.
The UK FTSE 100 should be headed lower towards at least the S/H/S measured target at 5,646, but here the Elliott wave count call for more downside towards 5,440
The French CAC 40 should be headed lower towards at least the S/H/S measured target at 3,884, but here the Elliott wave count call for a continuation lower to 3,488.50. 
That said, I do see a clear risk for these declines to be of much greater magnitude. Especially the French CAC 40 looks very vulnerable as a break below 3,892 will trigger an even bigger S/H/S top with a measured downside target at 2,440.

France currently has more that enough on its mind. As host for the European Championship, where them Hooligans again seems on the rise. Two major terror attacks, strikes etc.
The UK with its EU referendum, where a win to the leave side seems more and more likely, creating lots of uncertainties. 
Finally Germany, the European economic locomotive that seems to be moving ahead in an ever more slowly pace and maybe even coming to a complete stop. Even worse the demographic in Germany will be a major drag on Germany economy for years to come.    
European trouble seems easy to find. It's much harder to find the bright spots...

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