Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of Dow Jones Industrial - Long Term View


Dow Jones Industrial - Long Term View 

Way back in March 2012 I posted some interesting Fibonacci relationships for the rally from the 1932 low. 

Then the next relationship was the 2008 + 5 = 2013. However, 2013 went and nothing happened, but here we are again at an interesting year as 2008 + 8 = 2016 indicating a possible top some time during this year. 

I of cause can't say with any degree of certainty why the Fibonacci series was broken, but I do think FED distorted the normal cycle, by QE 1,2 and 3 and thereby moved the cycle towards the next Fibonacci number. 

I have been working the expanded triangle consolidation for years, but I have of cause some alternate count, which could be possible counts too. Only the alternate count #2 allows for a move slightly higher to 20,098 before wave [III] finally is in place and a major correction in wave [IV] develops. 

All the three counts calls for wave [IV] either unfolding already or beginning to unfold soon. 

If we apply the Alternation Principle wave [II] was a simple and deep decline, which means that [IV] should be complex shallow (this is the primarily reason, why I favor the expanding triangle count). The ideal bottom for wave [IV] should be expected in 2021:

2000 + 21 = 2021
2008 + 13 = 2021
2016 +   5 = 2021 (the cycle jumped one number, like because of FED and the QE).  

ALTERNATE COUNT #1

ALTERNATE COUNT #2

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