The Turkish Lira has been weakening since early 2008, where it traded at 1.1436. As we have been Trading within a major rising channel I have counted this rally as an simple A-B-C zig-zag correction. Wave C did a Classic overshooting of the channel resistance line, but the quick return into the channel indicates, that a top is in place for a decline towards at least 1.9138, where we find the 38.2% corrective target.
Looking at the bigger picture we will find a nice relationship between wave A and C as wave C is a little higher than 1.382 times wave A.
As the Turkish central bank has doubles its interest rates overnight being short USD and long TRY will add a nice forward Premium to the spot price.
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