Saturday, January 25, 2014

AUD/USD - Impulsive decline from 0.8888 points to more downside action.

AUD/USD

Juan asked if I would look for a recovery from near 0.85?

The answer is no!

I did look for a wave 2 correction a bit higher than the 0.9086 we reached (I was looking for a correction towards 0.9178 before lower Again). The decline from 0.9086 does look impulsive and fits well into my expectation of a wave 3 decline developing. I will look for resistance near 0.8772 protecting the upside for a decline towards at least 0.8144 and more likely even lower towards 0.7564. I think it's worth noticing that we have broken below the long term support line, but we need more than one close below this line to confirm the break.
To keep the above scenario to stay valid, resistance at 0.8888 has to stay unbroken. A break above 0.8888 will open up for a rally towards 0.9178.

6 comments:

  1. Hi!
    EWS what you think about this my analisis of Euraud?

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/md5atvd30xr872y/euraud.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Zink,

      I think it's a valid Count as long as wave 4 doesn't overlap wave 1.

      So stay with your Count and enjoy the ride.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete
  2. At what point would you suggest shorting?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Eric,

      I would short AUD near 0.8772 with a stop at 0.8890 or upon a break below 0.8674 with a stop just above the recent high.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete
  3. Enjoying your Blog. Would you mind doing an analysis of EUR/AUD and AUD/NZD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Eric,

      Will update the two during the day, so just keep an eye on the blog.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete