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Friday, January 24, 2014

Elliott wave analysis for EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for January 24 - 2014

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 141.43
R2: 141.03
R1: 140.74
Current Spot: 140.45
S1: 139.59
S2: 138.61
S3: 137.99
Technical Summary:
The red wave ii correction ended slightly lower than the ideal target at 142.64 (the high came in at 142.42). The powerful decline that followed the high at 142.42 confirms that red wave iii lower towards at least 139.59 is developing. However, I will be looking for a much deeper decline in red wave iii towards 137.99 as the most likely target for red wave iii. 
Short term expect minor resistance at 140.74 will be able to protect the upside for the next part of the decline, but even if minor resistance at 140.74 is broken, strong resistance will be seen at 141.03 and this resistance should protect the upside without any problems.
EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6829
R2: 1.6760
R1: 1.6709
Current Spot: 1.6668
S1: 1.6598
S2: 1.6528
S3: 1.6493
Technical Summary:
The unexpected break above important resistance at 1.6499 is a total game changer here. The bearish picture I have been describing over the last month has worked pretty well until yesterdays break above 1.6499 this break is not consistent with the bearish count. I have been back to the drawing board looking for the best alternate count. The best count is that a new impulsive rally began at the 1.5914 low in early November. Wave 1 went from 1.5914 to 1.6996 and wave 2 went from 1.6996 down to 1.6214, which marked a 70.7% correction of wave 1. If this count is correct the wave 3 higher is in its very early parts. The minimum target for wave 3 will be at 1.7344 but I would not be surprised to see wave 3 extend higher towards 1.8013 longer term. 
Short term look for resistance near 1.6690 protecting the upside for a correction towards support in the 1.6462 - 1.6493 area for the next rally higher towards strong resistance near 1.6920.

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