Sunday, January 26, 2014
Emerging Market Currency Fund at a two year low.
I has been looking at this chart for a while. As can be seen we are currently at a two year low and it looks as we should expect more downside action in the weeks/months ahead. If however, support near 19.50 protects the downside for a new rally above 20.03, then the above count is invalidated and a new rally towards the resistance line near 21.00 should be expected, but this pattern doesn't boarder well for the Emerging Market Currencies.
As I have said before, economics is not my strength, but what if the next economic crises has its roots in the Emerging Market? The pressure on the Emerging Market countries has been extreme in form of imported inflation due to the money flooding (QE) from both FED and ECB, but also from China's central bank, but that is internally in China. It could also be a breakdown in commodity prices see the chart of CRB Index below), that will add pressure on most Emerging Market countries economies.
I don't no it was just a thought. Feel free to share your view.