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Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/CHF and GBP/NZD - Short term count



AUD/CHF

Sanjay asked if I would take a look at AUD/CHF and GBP/NZD, so here we go.

The S/H/S target has been reached and we might see a Little more downside action before a larger correction in wave 4 sets in. I would expect wave 4 to be a simple quick zig-zag correction, because of the alternation principle, which states, that if wave 2 was a complex correction and it was, then we should expect a simple correction as wave 4.

Wave 2 corrected almost exactly 61.8% of wave 1 and therefore we should be looking for a relatively small wave 4 correction likely not correcting more than 31.8% of wave 3, which would call for a correction towards 0.8892.


GBP/NZD

Please see my post from May 9 here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/05/elliott-wave-analysis-on-gbpnzd-long.html

We have seen a very nice and powerful rally since my last update on this cross on May 9.
I think we have just ended red wave ii and red wave iii higher has taken over. If this is the case we should soon see a break above 1.9626 and more importantly a break above 1.9802 for a rally higher towards 2,0567 and possibly even higher towards 2.0879. However, longer term I'm looking for a rally much higher.


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4 comments:

  1. UnknownAugust 7, 2013 at 5:41 PM

    Hi EWS,
    Can you please give me an update on GBP/USD and GBP/JPY?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownAugust 7, 2013 at 9:01 PM

    Thanks a lot EWS for your prompt updates.

    Looking to trade these pairs based on the lvls. you have presented - already long GBPNZD from 1.94 area and will continue to hold for more upside!

    On the AUDCHF pair, you have mentioned wave 4 correction to around .8892 - hope I am reading it correctly and it's not a typo as this level is 600 pips away and that would be huge correction if it goes to this level.
    Pls. confirm.

    Thanks again and have a great day!

    Regards
    Sanjay

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott wave surferAugust 8, 2013 at 5:55 AM

      Hi Sanjay,

      It's not a typo, when I expect a correction in wave 4 towards 0.8892. As wave 3 was good for 1756 pips, then giving back 600 pips in wave 4 seems pretty fair in my view.

      Look at this way. Wave iv of 3 corrected 465 pips and wave 4 should be bigger, than any correction during wave 3, so the very least we can expect is 465 pips. Therefore a correctuion of 600 pips should not seem that outrages, at least it doesn't to my.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete
  3. UnknownAugust 8, 2013 at 12:43 PM

    Thanks EWS - got it!

    ReplyDelete

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