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Thursday, August 22, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 131.56
R2: 131.20
R1: 131.03
Current spot: 130.88
S1: 130.63
S2: 130.21
S3: 129.90
Technical Summary:
Well once again we saw a break above resistance at 131.01, more and more evidence is pointing towards the triangle as the preferred count. That means we should see a continuation higher towards strong resistance near 132.00 to end wave d and then one last decline towards 129.98 and maybe even down to 129.50 before wave e of the triangle is in place. However, once wave e of the triangle is done, we can expect a new very powerful rally higher towards 170.00, but for now we have to concentrate on getting this triangle finished.
EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 171.53
R2: 171.00
R1: 170.74
Current spot: 170.47
S1: 170.00
S2: 1.6967
S3: 1.6934
Technical Summary:
I'm still looking for a top of wave i near 171.00 and we should be ready for the first sizable set-back since this rally took of from 1.6325. The ideal target for this wave ii correction of wave i will be at the 38.2% retracement target at 1.6804. That said, we must remember that the corrections during wave i has been sub-normal and therefore we will have to monitor the coming wave ii closely, but for now let's focus on getting the top of wave i in place near 1.7100 and then where we can expect wave ii to end.

9 comments:

  1. AUDNZD came out differently! How high it can rise? 1.1550? 1.16?
    For a new Technical Summary I would be very grateful.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Paulina,

    With the break above 1.1461 the triangle scenario was invalidated and we should look for a flat correction. That would mean a return to ideally the 1.1529 - 1.1544 area from where the next decline should be expected. However a clear break above 1.1544 will delay the decline for a move closer to 1.1648 before down.

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi EWI, I'm also bullish eur/jpy long term and expecting a correction in September, so my question is: do you expect 170 to be reach during 2014 or later? Although I think that Germans would not allow expensive euro vs yen, that would ruin German export, but who knows...
    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Marjan,

      The rally from 94.10 to 133.74 took 10 month and we are entering what would normally be considered the most powerful wave ( wave 3 or C) so I would not at all be surprised to see 170 during 2014.

      However there seems to be cycle tops every 10 years and that would call for a major top in 2018, so maybe we are looking for a more slowly deveoped C wave?

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete
    2. thanks EWS, I'll enter long but not now, waiting for a pullback.

      Delete
  4. hi Elliott wave surfer,

    thank you very much ... I see it exactly the way you do.

    KR

    ReplyDelete
  5. Have you taken a look at Spanish Ibex35?

    http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/673206/esp35-w1-forex-capital-markets?bind=1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Manuel,

      Very interesting. I think you Count is spot on. In the bigger Picture I think you have the same idea as I have.
      I think, that we are in the very early parts of wave C of an Expanding flat wave B and I'm looking for a rally higher towards 12,450 and likely even higher towards 13,000 before the next powerful decline takes over.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete
  6. Hi EWS,say something about USD/CHF,if it is a new impulse rali beginning?

    ReplyDelete