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Thursday, August 8, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 129.80

R2: 129.60

R1: 129.33

Current Spot: 129.07

S1: 128.65

S2: 128.24

S3: 127.62

Technical Summary:

We saw the expected decline to the minimum target at 128.54 yesterday. As wave i of blue wave iii and wave iii of blue wave iii is equal in length we should expect wave v of blue wave iii to be extended and that would call for a decline towards 126.06.
Short term I will be looking for resistance at 129.33 to protect the upside for a break below minor support at 128.65, which will be the first good indication that the next impulsive decline lower is developing and a break below 128.41 will confirm the decline. towards 126.06.
However, if we break above 129.33 the downside pressure will be delayed for a push towards 129.60 before we should expect renewed downside pressure.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6946

R2: 1.6872

R1: 1.6796

Current Spot: 1.6760

S1: 1.6718

S2: 1.6656

S3: 1.6623

Technical Summary:

The break below the important support at 1.6771 yesterday invalidated my bullish Count and tells us, that the rally of the 1.6225 low is only a B-wave in a flat correction. Therefore we will have to change our focus from the upside towards the downside until this ongoing correction is over.
I'm now looking for resistance at 1.6796 to protect the upside for a break below 1.6718, which will be the first good indication, that we can expect the impulsive decline lower towards at least 1.6623 and likely even deeper towards 1.6456.
Short term a break above 1.6799 will confuse the Picture, but only a break above 1.6872 will question the bigger Picture.


4 comments:

  1. Hi EWS eurusd next trend line on weekly 1.4815 to 1.3710 right on it again and pessing on 88.6 fibo we are going to have that short soon :)lol and then chf up.
    Cheaky move with GBP also should run out of steam soon or may even go to 1.5550 1.56 before down what do you think
    Best Regards jt

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  2. Hi JT,

    Yes it's important that this weekly trendline resistance protects the upside. Otherwise will will have to consider the rally from 1.2042 to 1.3711 as wave W and the decline from 1.3711 down to 1.2756 as wave X and wave Y higher developing. I don't really like this count, but then how knows...

    I agree Cable should soon run out of steam too otherwise we should expect a move higher towards 1.5752 and maybe even higher towards 1.5881 and 1.6064. Again I don't really like this count, but you never know for sure.

    Kind regards
    EWS

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  3. How do you see the USD/CHF pair now?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi John,

    Ideally support at 0.9175 will protect the downside for a break above 0.9228 and more importantly a break above 0.9289, which will confirm that a bottom is in place for a new rally.

    However, if support at 0.9175 break we should see a move lower towards 0.9105 and likely also 0.9080 before a new rally higher can be expected.



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