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Monday, July 15, 2013

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD


EUR/USD

Please see my last post on EUR/USD here first:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/07/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd.html

As we broke above resistance at 1.3103 I knew, that the count I presented on July 10 couldn't be correct as wave ii is not allowed to break above the starting point of wave i. Therefore I have had to review the entire decline from 1.3262 down to 1.2756 again. I still think the decline from 1.3262 is impulsive in character and therefore we should expect more downside pressure. However, we need to break below support at 1.3000 and more importantly we need a break below 1.2883 to confirm, that the rally from 1.2756 on was a wave ii correction. Therefore as long as support at 1.2883 stays unbroken there is a risk, that the decline from 1.3265 was only a c-wave in a complex expanded flat wave b and that would call for one last rally higher to just above 1.3262 in wave c, but that is not my preferred count. However, we need to stay flexible and wait for confirmation, which scenario is the correct one.

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