After the break above the falling channel resistance line, we working our way higher towards the top at 133.81. This weak rally will, as I have said, be a bumpy ride, with lots of deep set backs and once this rally is over, we should look for a new decline towards at least 124.96 and possibly lower. Short term I'm looking for support at 131.06 to protect the downside for the next rally higher, which a break above minor resistance at 131.75 will confirm. However, if support at 131.06 breaks we should not expect a deeper decline, than to 130.79 before the next rally higher.
The minor road-map I laid out yesterday has pretty much described the price action. However, the decline from the top at 1.6685 (we expected a top at 1.6675) has be deeper than our expected 1.6603 as we have seen a low at 1.6565. The rally from 1.6557 to 1.6685 was a minor five wave pattern and therefore I have counted it as the first minor wave of red wave iii higher towards 1.7248. If this count is correct, then we must allow for a 100% retracement of this minor wave one, but we can not allow just a single pip below 1.5758 as that would force me to adjust my present count. That said, I'm still expecting support at 1.6565 to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6633 and a break here will confirm the bottom for a rally back to 1.6685 and higher towards 1.6762 and 1.6817 on the way towards 1.7248.
Good Morning EWS:
ReplyDeleteAt EURJPY, are we watching a flat correction?
Hi T
ReplyDeleteThanks for the eur/gbp and gold update NOw I am concerned about the unexpected rally of newzealand dollar which has pushed eur/nzd way below 1.6590 and NOw where do you expected that rally to end and where would you be looking for a break to confirm the bottom still bottom is very deep and we should be looking for wave 2 to end anytime or you are expecting wave B correction in kiwi dollar
pls update
regards
Aman
Hi, great analysis, thanks. I found your blog by accident, and I'm glad I did. This is perhaps the best Elliot Wave analysis across the board I've seen in a long time.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to think we could be heading along a corrective C-wave towards 1,22 and below to complete the 4th wave (EUR/NZD). Any thoughts on that?
NZD seems to be stronger against the euro than AUD. In your opinion, was the new high in EUR/AUD a week ago a very small 5th wave, x-wave of a complex correction (4th) or a small 1st wave of a bigger 5th leg?
I meant below 1,62 with that remark of a corrective C-wave.
DeleteHi Manuel,
ReplyDeleteYes I'm looking for a flat correction in EUR/JPY. However the B-wave has been anything, but easy to read, but I still would be looking for a move closer to 133.81, before the final decline sets in.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi EWS:
DeleteThanks a lot, have a nice weekend
Happy to read you
Hi Aman and Sandor.
ReplyDeleteThe break below 1.6558 has forced me to change the counts slightly. I'm looking for a bottom to form soon in the area between 1.6400 - 1.6440.
Instead of wave i ending at 1.6600 I have changed the count so that wave i ended at 1.6798 and that we currently is in wave ii.
As wave two has the potential to correct all of wave one we must accept the deep correction.
Regarding EUR/AUD I will have to agree with you, that it seems, as wave 5 became very small.
Kind regards
EWS