We should be just on edge of a powerful decline towards 127.82 and 126.87 as the next targets lower. That said, we are only in the very early parts of wave c lower and this wave c should at least reach strong support at 124.96. However, if we break below the strong support at 124.96 we will see a much deeper decline to our ideal target for this correction at 118.73. Short term we should expect minor resistance at 129.64 to protect the upside for a break below 129.16 and more important a break below 128.97, which will confirm, that the expected powerful decline is under way.
Our triangle scenario panned out perfectly yesterday. We saw a minor correction to 1.6720 before the major decline occurred. We are currently in a correction from the low at 1.6429. This correction could move a little higher, but we are very close to the top. We are now looking for a break below 1.6490 to confirm the top and that the final decline towards our ideal target at 1.6388 is developing. However, as long as minor support at 1.6490 protects the downside we could see this correction higher to 1.6560 before the next downside pressure really takes over.
That said, we are getting close to my ideal target, for this corrective X-wave from 1.7112, at 1.6388 and we should be looking for signs, that this correction is over and the next major rally higher is ready to take over.
Hey EWS gbp looking interesting could get good support around 1.50 or break for 1.48"s
ReplyDeletewhat do you think
Best Regards and have a great day jt
Hi JT,
ReplyDeleteThe break below 1.5008 has invalidated the short term bullish count. However, I still think the down side is limited and would count this decline as an x-wave and would expect a bottom soon. To confirm a bottom we will need to break above 1.5304.
Kind regards
EWS
EWS, i was thinking what can cause eurjpy drop to target 125 and 118. Do u think euro maintain below 1.28 or nikkei start major drop?
ReplyDeleteSo far eurusd drop from 1.34 to 1.29 about 500pips. It look weak plus long term support at 1.283 is very difficult forsee eur can weak further in this short periods.
Japan Nikkei stock market chart it's still very bullish means yen further weak.
Hi Juan,
ReplyDeleteI don't know what will cause EUR/JPY to move lower to 124.96 and likely 118, but that is what the chart tells me and that is the way I will trade.
I agree with you on your EUR/USD outlook, but all it takes is speed. If USD/JPY moves faster than EUR/USD, that would give you the decline in EUR/JPY.
Regaring the Nikkei It could just be a correction towards the downside or alot of other possibilities.
That said, I really don't think that any of this matters other than being able to say to your self "I was right"...
If the charts tells you, that EUR/JPY is going down, that all you need to know and one more very very important thing. You should always know, when you are wrong.
Kind regards
EWS
Hello EWS,
ReplyDeleteAfter the good NFP numbers the ABC scenario for UJ is still valid ?Or we going much higher from here?Also if yes this will affect negatively the forecast for ej ?
Thanks in advance,
Panos
Hi Panos,
DeleteYes, that scenario for USD/JPY is still valid. Only a break above 103.52 will invalidate the scenario, but I don't think we will come close to 103.52. I think we are very close to the top and should see a powerful decline soon.
As JT said just below. NFP figures played a Little with the waves, but fundamentals never change the underlying structure of the waves, so stay truned for a powerful decline soon.
No chnage in my EUR/JPY forecast, just a Little detour before lower again.
Kind regards
EWS
Hey EWS Great analysis this week Nfp"s playing waves around get back to normal soon.
ReplyDeleteHave A Great Weekend
Best Regards Jt
Hi JT,
DeleteThank you very much and a great weekend to you too.
I agree with you. we should be back to normal on monday.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteI see SPWR broke into a new high. I know you have $25 as your short term target for wave 3.
Is there a second target higher this could likely go to?
Hi Todd,
DeleteI have updated and posted my count for SunPower. The first target beyond 25.11 is 28.83.
Kind regards
EWS
HI T
ReplyDeleteLots of stress already and then I step in for one last question And I wont bother you again This month . My craziness about aussie Shorted right at weekly resistance 0.9300 And still in the trade looking for atleast 0.8832 Can you guide me where should I be looking to book for profits Because a break below 0.9114 on weekly really give me confidence And Now I am looking for breakeven at 0.9100 . so if you can guide me where should I expect that decline Then I can one more lot with protecting earlier position and risk only half of my profits on that lot
My kindest regards for your help on USD/CAD . spot on Mr. T
Take care
Have a nice weekend
Aman
Hi Aman,
DeleteI have just updated my AUD/USD Count. I would not be looking for a decline towards 0.8832 just yet, but it will come later, but for now you should expect a bottom soon and a rally back to at least 0.9626 in wave B
Kind Regards
EWS