Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD

 DAILY

 

4 HOURLY

 

 

EUR/USD

 

 

 On Wednesday I call the possible top of the ending diagonal that had developed since July 15. (Please see my post from Wednesday here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/07/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd-short.html)

 

 

In that post I said, that we needed a break below important support at 1.3160 to confirm, that wave iii lower was developing. However, we never saw a break below 1.3160 (the low came in at 1.3166) and since then we have seen a break above the top at 1.3255. That told us, that it wasn't wave v, but only the top of wave iii and we needed one more rally, which currently is ongoing.

 

The big question whether we have seen the top of wave v at 1.3297 or we need a Little more upside closer to 1.3320? I think we need a little more time and a move a little higher towards strong resistance at 1.3320 before this rally is over. Ideally I will look for a top near 1.3320 followed by a break below 1.3222 as the first indication of a top. However, we need a break below 1.3166 to confirm the top and that wave iii has taken over for a powerful decline towards 1.2756 and lower towards 1.1852 as the ideal target for wave 3.

 

From a Trading perspective the fact that this wave ii rally has come very close to the top of wave 2. Gives us the perfect basis for a low risk trade in respect to the possible reward. As we know, that this count is wrong, if we break above the wave 2 high at 1.3416 making the risk less than 100 pips against a possible reward of more than 1400 pips. It doesn't get much better than that.

Even if we wait to take on the more conservative trade, waiting for a break below 1.3166, that would still leave a possible rwards of more than 1300 pips.