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Friday, May 17, 2013

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD - Follow up from this mornings brief update

 EUR/JPY

I'm still looking for the final wave higher towards the ideal target near 134.47 at which point I think the entire rally since the 94.10 low will end wave I and wave II will take over. As wave v of 5 moves higher we now must be on high alert to signs, that wave I is over. Once wave II takes over we should expect a powerful decline towards the bottom of wave 4 of one lessor degree, which comes in at 118.73. However, for now we should still look for the last rally higher and for the short term support at 131.28 and more importantly support at 131.18 should protect the downside for a break above 132.08 for next move higher trough 132.77 towards 133.54 and finally 134.47.

EUR/NZD

There was no time for red wave ii to develop into a deeper correction and the break above the top of red wave i indicated, that red wave iii was developing. We should soon see a clear break above the base-channel resistance line, which will confirm that red wave iii is developing. As red wave i wave a leading diagonal, we should expect red wave iii to extend and the first extension target will come in at 1.6481, where red wave iii will be 1.618 times red wave i. Short term we could see a decline to 1.5770, but from there or upon a break above 1.5924 we should see the next very powerful rally higher towards 1.5970 and 1.6023.

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