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Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Wave ii of 5 has become more complex, than I first expected, but that does not change my expectation of a powerful rally soon. A break above minor resistance at 130.37 confirms that wave iii of 5 is under way towards the top of wave 3 at 131.12, but this top should at best mark only minor resistance along the way to at least 131.67 and more likely 133.59. Short term I expect minor support at 129.72 to protect the downside for the break above 130.37. That said, even if we see a break below 129.72 the potential downside should be limited to 129.60.
 
EUR/NZD

This cross finally seems to have come to live. I'm still looking for a major rally over the coming weeks/months and even years. That said, let us zoom in on the shorter time-frame. With the break above resistance at 1.5611 I'm looking for a continuation higher towards 1.5770 and 1.5917 as the next targets higher, but I do expect this rally to move much higher longer term. Short term we are looking for support at 1.5615 to protect the downside for the next move higher. 

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