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Sunday, August 1, 2010

S&P 500 - Wave 2 is most likely over

As I said in my Friday post the was a possibility that wave five of C of 2 became truncated (no new high in the fifth wave). The reason for my to say that is, that what might have been wave iv dipped into the area of wave i, which is not allowed under the EWP. Therefor the most obvious count is that wave 2 is over and wave 3 down has begun.

Looking at the longer term picture (see the chart below), we faces to possible counts for the decline since the April high. The decline could be a A-B-C correction, where wave C will fall to around 911 (pink line), while the other count is that wave 3 down has begun (my favorite count) that should take wave 3 down to around 784 (1.618 times wave 1) or possible even to around 584 2.618 times wave 1). Elliott said that wave 3 is often the longest wave and never the shortest.

1 comment:

  1. hi,
    Considering the markets today which have opened and the S&P 500 crossing 1120 level. What do you think is the next wave and step? Do you think that this is the new top or high on wave two which did not happen on friday?
    Would appreciate your input and if you could explain with a graph then nothing like that ;)
    thanks for your time and efforts mate.

    ReplyDelete