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Sunday, August 8, 2010

S&P 500 - Fibonacci in play.

I was looking at the S&P 500 chart this weekend in regards to Fibonacci. I sure you all know Fibonacci or Leonardo Fibonacci da Pisa, as his real name was. He was a great, if not the greatest, mathematician of his time. Fibonacci was born between 1170 and 1180. After a trip to Egypt he wrote a book Liber Abaci where he introduced the decimal system, but he also introduced the Fibonacci sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 44, 89, 144...... which is use extensively by the Elliott Wave practitioners.

If one looks at the price action from the top on October 11 - 2007 at 1,576.09 the decline to November 21 - 2008 took 13 months. If this was the orthodox bottom we have the first Fibonacci number. The following four months was wave A and B of a expanded flat correction. The low of wave B came in at 666.79. If you add the figures together 6+6+6+7+9 = 34, which is also a Fibonacci number and as we now know an important bottom. From the 666,79 bottom we had a 13 months rally to the high of 1,219.80 on April the 26 - 2010. If you add the number in1,219.80 together again 1+2+1+9+8+0 = 21 the next lower Fibonacci number. Therefore we could assume that the top at 1,219.80 was an important top as the bottom at 666.79 was.
What could be expected next? I would say that we should look for the next lower number in the Fibonacci sequence, that number would be 13, but it took 13 months from bottom to top, so maybe we should look for the Fibonacci number 8 instead? Time will show, but we might have gotten us self an important clue of the coming direction of the stock market and that should be down, when wave 2 of 3 of [C] is done near the 1,136 - 1,140 area.



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